Jerusalem: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot are competing to form the next government after a closely contested national election left neither side with a clear parliamentary majority. Preliminary results have shown a changing balance between the two camps, raising questions about who will lead the country and how a new government can be formed.
With about half of the votes counted, Netanyahu’s Likud party was ahead of Eisenkot’s Yashar party in vote share. An earlier projection, based on 48.4 per cent of votes counted, indicated that Netanyahu’s bloc could win 55 seats in the 120 member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Eisenkot’s bloc was projected to win 50 seats, while Arab parties were projected to secure 15 seats. These figures remain preliminary and could change as counting continues.
A government needs the support of at least 61 members of the Knesset to command a parliamentary majority. Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has yet demonstrated a clear path to securing that support.
Exit polls released after voting ended on Tuesday, October 27, showed a close contest. Some projections placed the opposition ahead, while others indicated a narrow advantage for Netanyahu’s bloc. The subsequent count has added to the uncertainty, with Netanyahu’s Likud emerging as the leading party in the early vote totals.
The election recorded turnout of 77.7 per cent, the highest since 1999. The strong participation came amid deep divisions over Netanyahu’s leadership, national security and the wars that have affected Israel and the wider Middle East since the Hamas led attack of October 7, 2023.
Netanyahu has called for a strong right wing government and highlighted Israel’s military operations against its regional adversaries. He has also emphasised his relationship with United States President Donald Trump, arguing that Israel faces an important opportunity to confront threats from Iran.
However, the preliminary results suggest that Netanyahu’s political bloc could struggle to secure a majority. His opponents have criticised his government over the security and intelligence failures preceding the October 7 attack and its handling of the subsequent war in Gaza.
Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces and leader of the Yashar party, has presented himself as an alternative to Netanyahu. He argues that voters have rejected the incumbent prime minister’s continued leadership and has called for national unity and a change in the country’s political direction.
Despite his challenge to Netanyahu, Eisenkot faces difficulties in building a governing coalition. The opposition includes parties with different political priorities, and he has largely ruled out forming a government dependent on Arab parties. This position could limit his options if the final results leave his bloc short of a majority.
Arab political parties could play an important role in the negotiations. Preliminary projections have given them a substantial number of seats, potentially making their support significant if neither of the main blocs can secure the 61 seats needed to govern.
Netanyahu has opposed forming a government that depends on Arab parties. Eisenkot has also expressed reservations about relying on them, although their parliamentary support could still become relevant to possible arrangements outside a formal governing coalition. No agreement has been confirmed.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog will have an important role once the results are finalised. He will consult political parties and select the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. The leader of the largest party does not automatically become prime minister. The central question is whether a candidate can obtain sufficient parliamentary support.
The election is Israel’s first national vote since the Hamas led attack of October 7, 2023, in which about 1,200 people were killed in Israel and 251 were taken hostage, according to Israeli figures. The subsequent war in Gaza, fighting involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and tensions with Iran have all shaped the debate over the country’s political future.
Netanyahu has defended his security record, while critics have questioned his government’s handling of the October 7 attack and the direction of the war in Gaza. Eisenkot has also emphasised national security, meaning that a change in leadership would not necessarily bring a fundamental shift in Israel’s approach to regional threats.
Trump said on Wednesday that he had heard Netanyahu had performed well in the election. His comments came while the count was still under way, and the US president acknowledged that it was too early to draw firm conclusions about the outcome.
The immediate priority is to complete the count and establish the final distribution of seats. Final results were expected in the days following the election, while November 4 was set as the formal deadline for publication of the official results.
If neither leader can assemble a majority, Israel could face prolonged coalition negotiations. A unity government or another election could become possible if political parties fail to reach an agreement, but neither outcome has been confirmed.
For now, the election has left Israel facing an uncertain political future. The final results, the positions taken by smaller parties and President Herzog’s decision on whom to ask to form a government will determine whether Netanyahu remains in power or Eisenkot can build an alternative administration.