Izmir:Turkey's opposition is facing growing political divisions and mounting challenges as it prepares for the next national elections in 2028. The imprisonment of prominent opposition figures, court disputes and defections to the ruling party have raised questions about its ability to challenge President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Despite setbacks since its strong performance in the March 2024 local elections, opposition leaders remain confident that voters will reject what they describe as government pressure and politically motivated legal action. However, political analysts warn that maintaining public support until the next elections could become increasingly difficult.
One of the most significant challenges for the opposition is the continued imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, widely regarded as one of Erdogan's main political rivals. Imamoglu has been held in pretrial detention since March 2025 and faces corruption allegations involving bribery, public tenders and the administration of Istanbul municipality.
Imamoglu denies the allegations and maintains that the legal proceedings against him are politically motivated. He presented his defence over four days, concluding on October 17, and rejected the accusations against him. The next hearing in the case is scheduled for November 2. The trial involves 436 defendants, including Imamoglu, and remains one of the most closely watched legal proceedings in Turkey.
The opposition has also been weakened by a major dispute within the Republican People's Party (CHP), which emerged as the country's leading party in the 2024 local elections. The party secured 37.77 per cent of the nationwide vote, ahead of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which received 35.49 per cent.
The political crisis deepened on May 21, 2026, when an appeals court annulled the CHP congress held in November 2023 and ordered the removal of Ozgur Ozel and the party leadership. The court reinstated former party chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his previous leadership team on an interim basis following allegations of irregularities during the congress. Ozel's supporters rejected the decision, further deepening divisions within the opposition.
On July 24, Ozel and 90 other lawmakers who had broken away from the CHP launched a new political organisation known as the New Party. Imamoglu later announced his departure from the CHP and joined the new movement in August, further changing the opposition's political landscape.
Another major setback came on October 7 when Izmir Mayor Cemil Tugay joined Erdogan's ruling AK Party. Tugay had won the metropolitan mayoral election in March 2024 as a CHP candidate, securing 48.97 per cent of the vote against 37.06 per cent for his main rival from the AK Party.
Tugay had left the CHP in June following the court ruling and served as an independent before joining the governing party. President Erdogan personally presented him with the AK Party badge during a ceremony at the party headquarters in Ankara.
The move was particularly significant because Izmir, Turkey's third largest city with around 4.5 million residents, has long been a stronghold of the secular and social democratic opposition. The city has been governed by administrations from the centre left for decades.
Tugay defended his decision, saying that joining the governing party would serve Izmir's interests and help the city receive greater support for development and public services. Erdogan also rejected opposition allegations that pressure had forced the mayor to change political allegiance.
However, opposition leaders accused the governing party of using threats and political pressure to weaken elected opposition representatives. Residents interviewed in Izmir also expressed differing views, with some criticising Tugay's decision while others believed closer cooperation with the central government could benefit the city.
Despite the mayor's defection, the New Party remains the largest group in Izmir's municipal council. This indicates that Tugay's change of political allegiance has not automatically transferred control of the council to the governing party.
The dispute comes as Turkey approaches another important political period, with discussions growing over the timing of the 2028 presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are currently scheduled for May 2028, but presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum said on October 15 that they would probably take place earlier, potentially in March or April.
The timing has important implications for Erdogan's political future. Turkey's Constitution limits presidents to two terms under the current system. However, it allows another presidential candidacy if parliament decides to renew elections during the president's second term.
Such a decision requires the support of at least 360 members of the 600 member parliament. Erdogan's governing alliance does not currently have enough seats to reach that threshold and would need support from other lawmakers to approve an early election.
Nationalist Movement Party leader Devlet Bahceli, a key ally of Erdogan, has supported bringing the elections forward within 2028 to allow the president to seek another term. Opposition leader Ozel has also called for an early election but argues that it should provide voters with an opportunity to challenge the government rather than simply facilitate another presidential candidacy for Erdogan.
The Turkish government has consistently rejected accusations that legal proceedings against opposition politicians are politically motivated. It maintains that the country's judiciary operates independently and that investigations are conducted according to the law.
Meanwhile, analysts say the opposition faces the difficult task of maintaining public dissatisfaction and turning it into sustained political support. Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of the Istanbul based IstanPol Institute, warned that public anger could fade if it was not turned into sustained political and organisational action.
Political science professor Tanju Tosun of Ege University said voters could lose confidence in the possibility of political change, potentially reducing turnout among opposition supporters.
The opposition's strong performance in 2024 demonstrated its ability to attract support across major Turkish cities. However, its subsequent divisions, legal challenges and the loss of elected representatives have created a changed political landscape.
With the next elections approaching, the opposition faces the challenge of maintaining unity among its supporters and convincing voters that it can provide a credible political alternative. Whether public dissatisfaction will translate into electoral support remains uncertain as Turkey enters another important period of political competition.