There has been a surge in fighting across Khartoum and other urban centers in Sudan, with influential military groups engaged in a fierce struggle for dominance. This conflict has raised concerns about the potential outbreak of a civil war across the entire nation.
After weeks of mounting tensions between the army and the powerful paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), fighting erupted on Saturday. These two groups had previously been aligned and jointly carried out a coup in 2021 to seize power. However, disputes over the proposed assimilation of the RSF into the military have resulted in increased friction. The main point of contention centers around who will assume control and command of the military during the integration phase. Analysts believe that this is a power struggle for supremacy over the nation. While most of the fighting has been concentrated in the capital city of Khartoum, clashes have also been reported in other parts of the country. The death toll currently stands at 185, with thousands of people sustaining injuries in the first three days.
The key figures involved in the violence are General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the army's top brass, and his second-in-command, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who leads the RSF and is commonly referred to as Hemedti. In October 2021, al-Burhan and Dagalo led a coup that disrupted an already fragile transition to civilian governance that had been initiated after the 2019 removal of longstanding ruler Omar al-Bashir. Following the coup, al-Burhan, a career soldier from northern Sudan, who had climbed up the ranks during the 30-year regime of al-Bashir, took the reins as the de facto leader of Sudan.
After the coup, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who belongs to the Rizeigat community of camel-herders in Darfur, was appointed as the deputy of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. As the army and civilian leaders worked together to find a solution to the political crisis caused by the coup, integrating the RSF into the regular army emerged as a significant issue. According to analyst Kholood Khair, a framework agreement was reached in December that "escalated tensions between al-Burhan and Hemedti" when it "elevated Hemedti's position to equal that of Burhan, rather than his subordinate."
According to Kholood Khair, who is the founder of the Khartoum-based Confluence Advisory think tank, the power shift between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo is the reason that discussions regarding the integration of the RSF and security sector reform have escalated into an armed conflict rather than a heated debate at the negotiation table.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) originated from the Janjaweed militias, which are alleged to have committed war crimes during the Darfur conflict in the 2000s. The government utilized the Janjaweed to assist the military in suppressing the rebellion. The RSF was established in 2013 and was later legalized as an independent security force by a law passed in 2017.
According to Adel Abdel Ghafar, director of the Foreign Policy and Security Program at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, as Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo gained more power, his business ventures expanded with the support of former ruler Omar al-Bashir. His family's investments grew in industries such as gold mining, livestock, and infrastructure. However, despite his close ties to al-Bashir, Dagalo joined the movement that overthrew the president during the 2019 uprising.
Sudan, situated at the intersection of the Red Sea, Sahel region, and Horn of Africa, possesses a strategic location and fertile land that have attracted regional powers, making the transition to stability more difficult. Political turmoil and violence have affected Sudan's neighboring countries, such as Ethiopia, Chad, and South Sudan. Sudan's relations with Ethiopia have been strained by disputes over border farmland, the Tigray conflict in Ethiopia, which forced tens of thousands of refugees into Sudan, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
The powerful nations of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who established strong connections with the RSF by deploying thousands of fighters to assist in the Yemen war, have urged both conflicting parties to cease fire. Along with the United Nations and the African Union, they form the "Quad" and have been involved in mediation efforts in Sudan. The United States and the United Kingdom are also part of this group.
Western nations are concerned about the possibility of Russia setting up a military base on the Red Sea, which has been welcomed by Sudanese leaders since the time of al-Bashir. Meanwhile, Egypt, which supports Sudan's military, has taken a different approach by engaging with factions that backed the 2021 coup.
A Very Zero-Sum Game
Alan Boswell, the Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group, stated that the conflict is an existential power struggle for both sides, and they see it as a very zero-sum game. As both generals are determined to win, Kholood Khair from the Confluence Advisory think tank finds it unlikely that they will come to the negotiating table without one or both of them suffering heavy losses. According to Khair, they continue to make bellicose statements against each other, and neither will emerge from the conflict unscathed. She added that the longer the fighting goes on in the streets, the higher the civilian casualties will be, and it will become increasingly difficult for either general to govern over the aftermath.