The recent incident of two drones flying over the walls of the Kremlin, Russia's center of power, has resulted in conflicting theories regarding the perpetrator and their motive.
Despite the drones being destroyed before causing any harm, the event has exposed the potential susceptibility of central Moscow to drone attacks, leading to criticisms of Russia's air defense capabilities.
While the incident has been seen as a humiliation for Russia, it could also serve as a political advantage for Vladimir Putin.
Some experts believe that the recent drone incident over the Kremlin has reinforced the Kremlin's narrative about the existential importance of its war in Ukraine for the Russian state and its people.
As the incident occurred shortly before the annual May 9 World War Two victory parade, a highly symbolic event for many Russians, and during a time when Russia is reportedly suffering heavy casualties with minimal territorial gains in Ukraine, some Kremlin watchers speculate that the Kremlin may be hoping to use the incident to generate a rally-around-the-flag effect.
According to Alexander Baunov, a former Russian diplomat and Kremlin observer, the Kremlin's response appears to be an attempt to bring together several important themes in a single statement.
The recent drone incident that breached the walls of the Kremlin has caused a stir in Russia, leading to a range of theories about the attackers' motivations. However, for President Vladimir Putin, the incident may prove politically beneficial.
Despite the drones being destroyed before they could inflict any harm, the event has raised questions about the effectiveness of Russia's air defences and highlighted Moscow's vulnerability to drone attacks. Inside Russia, the incident has reinforced the Kremlin's narrative that the war in Ukraine is a crucial existential battle for the Russian state and people.
With the annual May 9 World War Two victory parade approaching, some Kremlin watchers believe the event may create a "rally-around-the-flag" effect, helping to unify the Russian people around patriotic themes.
Experts also speculate that the incident could pave the way for further escalation, potentially involving targeting Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and his team, and provide a pretext for increased repression in Russia.
While some Western commentators have questioned whether Russia has any further options to escalate the war in Ukraine beyond using nuclear weapons, some Russian commentators have suggested that Moscow could still take further aggressive action, such as targeting government buildings in central Kyiv or attempting to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and members of his team.
Although such actions would be condemned in the West, some prominent pro-Kremlin figures, including former President Dmitry Medvedev and TV commentator Vladimir Solovyov, have advocated for them in the wake of the recent drone incident.
In order for the Kremlin to justify targeted campaigns against Ukraine's presidential administration and government buildings, it could potentially shift its approach by officially labeling its actions in Ukraine as a counter-terrorism operation, a move that some nationalist politicians have advocated for.
Additionally, it could designate the Ukrainian government as a terrorist organization and Western countries such as the United States as sponsors of terrorism, a suggestion that has been voiced by Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of Russia's lower house of parliament.
Russian authorities are considering designating their campaign in Ukraine as a counter-terrorism operation, which could pave the way for more repression at home and potentially increase the escalation of the conflict, including targeting Ukraine's presidential administration and trying to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his team.
The designation could also be used to designate the Ukrainian government as a terrorist organisation and its Western backers, such as the United States, as sponsors of terrorism. Such moves could open up new avenues for prosecuting Russian citizens who have contacts with Western governments.
Additionally, Putin could order a new wave of military mobilisation to draft and train up more soldiers for the war, with incidents like the drone one providing political cover. While Putin does not necessarily need political cover for major policy shifts, it could be used to explain and justify certain actions.
The investigation into the drone incident is likely to reveal flaws in Russia's air defenses, which could lead to dismissals or a broader restructuring if Putin deems it necessary.