Amidst the prolonged full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has often portrayed himself as a solitary figure. However, his influence is fortified by an unwavering inner circle that has remained largely unchanged over the years. While bearing the ultimate responsibility as the commander in chief, Putin heavily relies on this circle, comprising individuals who have roots in Russia's security services.

Although Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, was a formidable ally, he was never part of this trusted circle. Thus, the question arises: Who holds the president's trust during this critical juncture of the war?

Sergei Shoigu

Over the course of several months, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the head of the armed forces, Valery Gerasimov, have found themselves targeted by Yevgeny Prigozhin's accusations. Prigozhin holds them responsible for the deaths of numerous Russians in the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. What initially began as a bitter and longstanding feud has escalated into a national crisis.

If there is anyone who holds the president's confidence, it would be his loyal defence minister. Their enduring bond has been evident through shared hunting and fishing trips to Siberia, and Shoigu was once even considered a potential successor to Putin. Throughout the conflict, he has consistently echoed Putin's stance, initially claiming that Russia was facilitating demilitarization in Ukraine, and later asserting that the "collective West," rather than Russia, initiated the war.

At times, one might question the extent of Shoigu's influence on President Putin. This remarkable photograph was taken merely three days into the invasion, back in February 2022.

As Russia's military campaign unfolded, it quickly encountered unanticipated Ukrainian resistance and a noticeable decline in military morale.

"Shoigu was expected to lead the charge towards Kyiv; after all, he is the Minister of Defence, and victory was anticipated," remarked Vera Mironova, an expert in armed conflicts.

Nevertheless, Shoigu continues to play a crucial role in the war, despite Prigozhin's accusations of him misleading the president regarding the ground realities in Ukraine.

Shoigu gained recognition for orchestrating the military annexation of Crimea in 2014. He also held authority over the GRU military intelligence agency, which faced allegations of orchestrating two nerve agent poisonings—the fatal attack in Salisbury, UK, in 2018, and the near-fatal assault on opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Siberia in 2020.

When observed up close, the situation appears even bleaker. "It resembles a funeral," remarked Ms Mironova.

While it may appear unconventional, Andrei Soldatov, a Russian security expert and writer, has put forth the notion that the defence minister holds the most significant sway over the president's decisions.

Soldatov asserts that Shoigu's influence extends beyond military matters, as he also plays a role in shaping ideology—an area predominantly centered around history in Russia—and has control over the narrative surrounding it.

Valery Gerasimov

Despite falling short in the task of swiftly completing the invasion of Ukraine as Chief of Staff, there is a compelling reason why he holds the record for the longest tenure in that position since the Soviet era—Vladimir Putin's unwavering trust in him.

Since his command of an army during the Chechen War of 1999, he has played a prominent role in Russian military campaigns. Valery Gerasimov, described as a stern and rugged figure by Russia specialist Mark Galeotti, was instrumental in planning the annexation of Crimea and also oversaw military exercises in Belarus prior to the conflict in Ukraine.

While there were initial speculations about his potential sidelining due to the slow start of the invasion and reports of low troop morale, his absence from the annual Moscow military parade in May 2022 fueled such discussions. However, in January of this year, he was appointed as the commander of forces in Ukraine, replacing General Sergei Surovikin, who now serves as his deputy.

"Andrei Soldatov commented, 'Putin cannot personally oversee every road and battalion, and that is where Gerasimov comes in,'" emphasizing the significance of Gerasimov's role.

Nikolai Patrushev

According to Ben Noble, an associate professor of Russian politics at University College London, "Patrushev is the most uncompromising advocate of Russia's interests, believing that the West has been conspiring against Russia for years."

Nikolai Patrushev is part of a trio of steadfast Putin loyalists who have been serving alongside him since the 1970s in St. Petersburg, back when it was still known as Leningrad. The other two members of this unwavering group are Alexander Bortnikov, chief of the security service, and Sergei Naryshkin, head of foreign intelligence. While all members of Putin's inner circle are referred to as "siloviki" or enforcers, this trio shares an even closer bond.

Few individuals hold as much sway over the president as Nikolai Patrushev. Having previously worked with Putin in the KGB during the communist era, he later succeeded Putin as the head of its successor organization, the FSB, serving from 1999 to 2008.

During an extraordinary meeting of Russia's security council, held three days prior to the invasion, Patrushev advocated his belief that the United States aimed to dismantle Russia. He has since accused the US of preparing for "biological warfare" and has attributed leadership roles in the West's supposed aspiration to defeat Russia to Washington and London.

When the Kakhovka dam was allegedly destroyed in a suspected Russian attack in southern Ukraine, occupied by Russian forces, Patrushev blamed Ukraine, supported by the US, UK, and their NATO allies.

Ben Noble notes, "He is the one who chants the chief battle cry, and there is a sense in which Putin has adopted his more extreme position."

Alexander Bortnikov

Analysts closely monitoring the Kremlin assert that the president places the highest level of trust in information provided by the security services, making Alexander Bortnikov a key figure within Putin's inner circle.

Having also served in the Leningrad KGB, Bortnikov assumed leadership of its successor organization, the FSB, following Nikolai Patrushev's departure.

Given the FSB's substantial influence over various law enforcement agencies and its possession of dedicated special forces, Bortnikov holds a significant position.

According to Andrei Soldatov, Bortnikov's role differs from others within the inner circle, as he is not primarily present to challenge the Russian leader or offer advice in the same manner.

Sergei Naryshkin

Sergei Naryshkin, completing the trio of former Leningrad intelligence operatives, has been a constant presence alongside the president throughout much of his career.

However, this did not prevent President Putin from publicly reprimanding him on television when he stumbled in delivering his assessment of the situation preceding the war.

The extensive session was edited, indicating that the Kremlin deliberately chose to showcase his unease in front of a large television audience.

According to Andrei Soldatov, "Putin enjoys playing mind games with his inner circle, often making [Naryshkin] appear foolish."

Sergei Naryshkin has consistently remained in the president's shadow, starting from their time together in St. Petersburg during the 1990s, then serving in Putin's office in 2004, and eventually assuming the role of parliament speaker. Additionally, Naryshkin holds the position of heading the Russian Historical Society, playing a significant role in providing ideological justifications for the president's actions.

Sergei Lavrov

Throughout his 19-year tenure as Russia's top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov has been the face of Russia's global representation, even though his role in decision-making is not regarded as significant.

At 73 years old, Lavrov serves as another testament to Vladimir Putin's reliance on individuals from his past.

The departure of a significant number of members from the UN Human Rights Council during Lavrov's attempt to justify Russia's invasion shortly after it began did not appear to be a matter of concern for him.

Despite being a staunch supporter of Putin from the beginning, he is believed to have no involvement in decision-making concerning Ukraine.

His primary responsibility lies in consolidating support for Russia in Africa, Latin America, and other regions, while advocating for his country as a champion of decolonization.

In an effort to portray Ukraine as a "Nazi regime," he has taken Russia's war rhetoric to extreme levels. Disregarding the fact that Ukraine's president is Jewish, he argued that it held no significance, stating, "I might be mistaken, but Hitler also had Jewish blood."

Valentina Matviyenko

Standing as a rare female figure in the Putin entourage, Valentina Matviyenko played a crucial role in overseeing the upper house's vote, endorsing the deployment of Russian forces abroad and setting the stage for the invasion.

Hailing from St. Petersburg, Matviyenko, much like other Putin loyalists, also contributed to the successful annexation of Crimea in 2014.

While she may not be regarded as a key decision-maker, determining with certainty who holds the ultimate authority and makes significant decisions remains a challenge for many.

Viktor Zolotov

Once serving as the president's bodyguard, he now leads Russia's national guard, Rosgvardia, which was established by President Putin in 2016 as a personal army akin to the praetorian guard of the Roman Empire.

By handpicking his own personal security guard to lead it, Putin ensured unwavering loyalty, and Viktor Zolotov expanded its ranks to an estimated 400,000 personnel.

Despite lacking a military background, the national guard has been entrusted with a wide range of responsibilities, including the control of occupied regions in Ukraine behind the front lines, resulting in significant casualties.

According to UK's defence intelligence, Russia's security forces, particularly the national guard, will play a critical role in shaping the outcome of the Prigozhin crisis.

Apart from his inner circle, who holds influence over Putin?

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin shoulders the challenging responsibility of economic recovery but wields limited influence over the war.

Political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko suggests that Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and Igor Sechin, the head of the state oil giant Rosneft, also maintain close ties with the president.

Billionaire brothers Boris and Arkady Rotenberg, childhood friends of Putin, have been longstanding trusted advisors. In fact, Forbes magazine recognized them as the wealthiest family in Russia in 2020.