Global wheat prices have experienced a significant surge following Russia's announcement that it would consider ships traveling to Ukrainian ports as possible military targets. Russia withdrew from a United Nations agreement that previously guaranteed safe passage for grain shipments crossing the Black Sea.

In recent days, Russia has launched attacks on Ukraine's grain facilities in Odesa and other cities, intensifying the situation further. Furthermore, Moscow issued a warning that starting Thursday, any vessels heading to Ukrainian ports would be perceived as aligning with "the Kyiv regime."

White House spokesman Adam Hodge expressed concerns that Russia might be planning to target civilian ships deliberately and then attribute the attacks to Ukraine. This escalating tension and hostilities have raised international alarm and contributed to the sharp increase in wheat prices on the global market.

 Russia was accused of laying additional sea mines near Ukrainian ports, part of a coordinated effort to provide a pretext for attacking civilian ships. The Kremlin did not respond immediately to these allegations.

The impact on the global wheat market was substantial, with European stock exchange witnessing a 8.2% surge in wheat prices on Wednesday, reaching €253.75 per tonne. Similarly, corn prices rose by 5.4%. In the US, wheat futures experienced an 8.5% jump, the highest daily increase since shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Amidst the crisis, President Vladimir Putin offered to return to the international grain agreement if certain demands were met. These demands included lifting sanctions on Russian grain and fertiliser sales and reconnecting Russia's agricultural bank to a global payment system.

The situation on the ground remained dire, with Russian air strikes continuing for the third consecutive night in Black Sea coastal cities, causing more than 20 people to be wounded in Odesa and Mykolaiv. Vitaliy Kim, the Mykolaiv regional governor, reported that 19 people were injured in the regional capital, including children, due to targeted attacks on apartment blocks.

In Odesa, a four-story building was severely damaged, resulting in several people being wounded.

The ongoing hostilities and uncertainty surrounding the situation in the region contributed to the significant rise in wheat prices on the global market, further exacerbating the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine.

The situation in the region continued to escalate as Russian-occupied Crimea experienced attacks for three consecutive days. According to Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-appointed leader of Crimea, a drone strike targeted four administrative buildings in the north-west of the peninsula, resulting in the tragic death of a teenage girl.

The occupied peninsula faced further disruptions due to the conflict. On Monday, a suspected Ukrainian drone attack from the sea damaged a bridge connecting Crimea to southern Russia. Additionally, on Tuesday, explosions at a nearby munitions depot led to the closure of a crucial motorway.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine accused Russia of deliberately targeting grain export infrastructure, endangering vulnerable countries' food security. Ukraine's Agriculture Minister, Mykola Solskyi, reported that the strikes had caused the destruction of 60,000 tonnes of grain and inflicted significant damage to the grain export facilities.

Amidst the tensions, the Russian defense ministry announced that starting Thursday, all vessels sailing to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea would be considered "potential carriers of military cargo." Furthermore, the ships' "flag states" would be seen as involved in the Ukrainian conflict, supporting the "Kyiv regime."

These escalating hostilities and attacks on critical infrastructure had severe consequences for civilians and the global grain market. The situation continued to be closely monitored by the international community as tensions between Russia and Ukraine remained high.

On Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin accused the West of using the grain deal as "political blackmail," while Moscow alleged that Ukraine was utilizing the Black Sea grain corridor for "combat purposes."

The situation has put Ukraine in a challenging position for exporting grain as its options through rail are limited due to smaller capacity compared to shipping volumes. Moreover, several EU countries in Eastern Europe have blocked Ukrainian grain to safeguard their own farmers' interests.

Marex Capital analyst Charlie Sernatinger warned that Russia's threatened escalation could potentially sever all waterborne grain shipments from the Black Sea, affecting both Russian and Ukrainian exports. This would create a situation similar to the beginning of the war, further exacerbating the already tense conditions.

As the crisis unfolded, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko urged the UK, US, France, and Turkey to safeguard grain ships with military convoys and provide air defenses to Odesa. The concern remains that Putin's intentions are to disrupt food security and cause a surge in world food prices. Such an increase would lead to inflation in developed countries but could result in social destabilization, starvation, and waves of migrants in developing nations.

The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has escalated tensions in the region, resulting in airstrikes and attacks on critical infrastructure. With Russia's aggressive actions and Ukraine's attempts to protect its interests and exports, the situation continues to be closely monitored by the international community, as it has far-reaching implications for regional stability and global food security.