Washington - Leading indicators in the United States are raising concerns about an impending recession, as a key index tracking business cycles fell for the 15th consecutive month in June. The decline in the index was primarily influenced by a weakening consumer outlook and an increase in unemployment claims. This ongoing decline represents the longest streak of decreases since the period leading up to the 2007-2009 recession.

The Conference Board, which monitors economic trends, reported that its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a crucial measure predicting future economic activity, dropped by 0.7% in June to reach 106.1, following a revised decrease of 0.6% in May. This decline surpassed the expectations of economists in a Reuters poll, who had forecasted a 0.6% decrease.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, the senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, expressed her concerns, stating that June's data suggests a continuation of economic deceleration in the upcoming months. The Conference Board further reiterated its prediction that the U.S. economy is likely to enter a recession, lasting from the current third quarter until the first quarter of 2024.

According to Zabinska-La Monica, factors such as elevated prices, tighter monetary policies, reduced access to credit, and decreased government spending are expected to further dampen economic growth. The contraction in the Leading Economic Index is intensifying, having fallen 4.2% over the last six months, compared to 3.8% between June and December 2022.

These trends have led JP Morgan to foresee a recession setting in during the second half of 2023 for the United States, adding to the growing concerns surrounding the country's economic outlook.