New Delhi - As India assumes the rotating G-20 presidency, it faces a challenging diplomatic landscape. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has cast a shadow of war over global summits, making consensus on various issues elusive. Despite this, India is determined to foster cooperation among world leaders gathered in New Delhi.
The absence of Jill Biden, who tested positive for Covid, and the frosty relations between the US and China have added complexity to the G-20 dynamics. China's President Xi Jinping chose not to attend, citing domestic reasons and strained ties with the US, marked by security clampdowns on technology exports.
The prospects of Xi's visit to New Delhi were already dim following a post-meeting dispute with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Johannesburg. Hosting the G-20, an international forum where China has few allies, might not have been appealing to him.
In this scenario, India's focus shifts to strengthening its strategic understanding with the US, especially as China remains intransigent along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Bilateral talks between Modi and Biden before the G-20 may hold more significance for India than securing elusive G-20 consensus on multilateral development bank reforms and climate change financing.
The absence of China's Xi Jinping will be a major talking point, as his trusted aide, Premier Li Qiang, may not initiate significant initiatives without Xi's approval.
India must also reconsider pursuing diplomatic overtures with China regarding the border standoff, given the prevailing tensions. At summits in Indonesia, leaders will likely express concerns about China's South China Sea territorial claims.
While the G-20 may lack unity, India has an opportunity to build stronger partnerships with nations equally concerned about China's assertiveness.
White House official Jake Sullivan emphasized that China could either play a constructive or disruptive role at the upcoming G-20 Summit. The US, India, and other members will encourage China to set aside geopolitical issues and focus on collaborative problem-solving.
China's decision to skip the G-20 Summit in Delhi came after Premier Li Qiang was announced as the Chinese representative. The absence of Xi Jinping remains unexplained.
In addition to addressing the G-20's economic challenges, the US is committed to meaningful outcomes in the face of global economic shocks. President Biden is scheduled to attend the G20 Summit in New Delhi and engage in bilateral talks with Prime Minister Modi.
As the G-20 convenes in India amid these complexities, India's opportunity to strengthen ties with the US takes center stage.