In a recent address at the Valdai Discussion Club, Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined his vision for the end of the conflict in Ukraine. He suggested that if Western military aid and economic support were cut off, Ukraine would collapse within a week.

Putin's remarks shed light on his strategy, which relies on fracturing the Western alliance backing Ukraine.

Recent developments in the United States have raised concerns about Ukraine's future. While President Joe Biden signed a stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown, it did not include additional funding for Ukraine. This lack of funding has put Kyiv on a countdown, and the White House is now exploring alternative ways to support Ukraine.

The US has been a vital lifeline for Ukraine throughout the war, providing approximately $113 billion in total support. However, the recent ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has created uncertainty regarding the approval of new assistance packages in Congress.

Additionally, the upcoming Republican presidential nomination race adds complexity to the situation. Some GOP candidates are skeptical about aiding Ukraine, with former President Donald Trump leading the pack. This political landscape may factor into Putin's calculations.

Europe also plays a role in Putin's strategy, as he hopes for Ukraine fatigue among European Union members. Recent parliamentary elections in Slovakia, an EU and NATO member, saw a pro-Kremlin party come out on top, advocating for ending arms shipments to Ukraine.

Putin's strategy also considers the limitations of Western ammunition production for Ukraine's needs. He highlighted the US struggle to meet the demand for ammunition, creating a race against Russia's industrial base.

Ultimately, Putin's plan relies on dysfunction in Washington, stress within the transatlantic alliance, and the perception that Ukraine is a losing cause. However, on the ground in Ukraine, the situation remains dire, and Ukrainians are determined to resist, regardless of Western support.

Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, emphasized that Ukrainians are prepared to fight for their survival, contradicting Putin's belief that Ukraine's collapse is imminent without Western support.

While Putin's strategy hinges on a prolonged conflict to erode Western support, it also risks his own regime's stability and underestimates the resolve of the Ukrainian people, who view themselves as more than puppets of Western powers.

Putin's strategy in Ukraine centers on weakening Western support through a war of attrition, but the determination of Ukrainians and the complexities of global politics add uncertainty to the outcome of this ongoing conflict.