Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently indicated that the intense fighting phase in Gaza was nearing its end, confirming an emerging consensus. The Israeli army's ongoing operation in Rafah is seen as its final major ground offensive in Gaza. This operation proceeded despite significant international opposition and involved strikes that have caused many Palestinian civilian casualties. However, it has not matched the previous levels of bombardment in Gaza City and Khan Younis.
Israeli forces, backed by tanks, continue to battle Palestinian fighters in western Rafah, while also demolishing many buildings in the city. The IDF claims to have severely weakened three of the four Hamas battalions in Rafah, suggesting the operation's completion might be near.
Despite these developments, Gaza's residents have found little solace, with the health ministry, run by Hamas, reporting 40 to 60 deaths daily. Israeli strikes continue elsewhere in Gaza, with no end in sight. Netanyahu's strategy aims to maintain the freedom for Israel to conduct attacks as needed, even if troops withdraw from Gaza.
In Washington, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant discussed with U.S. officials the transition to Phase C of Israel's campaign, a less intensive stage, emphasizing its impact on all fronts, particularly the northern border with Lebanon. This area has seen increased conflict with Hezbollah, raising concerns of a potential broader war. Netanyahu has indicated that reducing Gaza operations would allow troop redeployment to the northern border.
Moves toward a ceasefire have stalled, with neither Israel nor Hamas fully embracing President Biden's proposal. Netanyahu dissolved the Israeli war cabinet after Benny Gantz resigned, citing the lack of a post-war plan. Netanyahu hinted at continued military control in Gaza and mentioned the possibility of a civilian administration with regional support.
Despite these plans, the situation in Gaza remains volatile, with Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters continuing guerrilla warfare. Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari acknowledged that destroying Hamas entirely is unrealistic, a view not fully accepted by Netanyahu, who persists in his goal of defeating Hamas militarily and politically.
Netanyahu's insistence on maintaining the freedom for military operations complicates ceasefire prospects. This stance has disappointed U.S. officials and drawn accusations from Hamas and criticism from families of hostages held in Gaza, who have accused Netanyahu of obstructing their release.
In summary, while the third phase of Israel's Gaza conflict may be less intense, there is no immediate end in sight. Ceasefire prospects, hostage releases, and efforts for Palestinians to rebuild their lives remain uncertain.