A severe humanitarian crisis is unfolding in northern Ethiopia, driven by drought, crop failure, and ongoing insecurity following a brutal war. Local officials warn that over two million people are at risk of starvation. The BBC, through exclusive access to Tigray province and satellite imagery analysis, has highlighted the scale of this emergency.

July is a critical period for food security as it is the planting season for farmers. However, satellite images reveal that reservoirs and farmlands have dried up due to last year's failed rains, which now need replenishment from seasonal rains for any hope of a successful harvest later in the year. For example, the Korir dam and reservoir, about 45km north of Mekele, supported over 300 farmers, but now the reservoir is empty and the fields are parched.

Tigray's population, estimated between six and seven million, suffered immensely during a two-year war between local forces and the federal government, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths from conflict, starvation, and lack of healthcare. Displacement camps were set up, and while some people have returned home post-war, most remain in camps, dependent on food aid due to failed crops.

One such camp near Shire houses over 30,000 people. Tsibktey Teklay, a resident, lost her husband in the war and now relies on food aid. Despite her current hardships, she hopes to return to her land for a better future.

Doctors at a hospital in Endabaguna, 20km south of Shire, report increasing cases of child malnutrition. Dr. Gebrekristos Gidey, the hospital’s medical director, notes that they lack the resources to care for all in need. A 20-year-old woman, Abeba Yeshalem, gave birth prematurely due to malnutrition, reflecting the dire situation.

The region faces its most critical period, the "peak hunger season," when food supplies run low, and crops must be planted for the October harvest. Dr. Gebrehiwet Gebregzabher of the Disaster Risk Management Commission in Tigray states that 2.1 million people are at risk of starvation, with another 2.4 million dependent on uncertain aid supplies. Data from the Ethiopian meteorology agency shows poor rains last year in northern Tigray and Afar, while southern Ethiopia suffered from flooding.

Professor Alex de Waal of the World Peace Foundation warns that famine, often a man-made disaster, is being overlooked. He draws parallels to the 1984 famine when a million people died, noting that current warnings of starvation are being ignored.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net) identifies parts of Tigray, Afar, and Amhara as facing an emergency. However, Ethiopia's federal government disputes these warnings. Shiferaw Teklemariam, head of the national Disaster Risk Management Commission, asserts there are no imminent famine dangers and that the government is prioritizing those most in need.

Relations between the Ethiopian government and aid agencies have been strained, with past allegations of blocked aid during the conflict and the expulsion of senior UN workers in 2021. Food aid suspensions in 2022 due to theft by officials were only lifted in November. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has denied hunger-related deaths, despite reports to the contrary.

Alex de Waal criticizes the slow response of aid agencies, constrained by limited resources and controversy aversion. USAID and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs acknowledge the funding shortfall and emphasize the urgent need for increased humanitarian support.