Rising unemployment in China is forcing millions of college graduates into difficult choices, with some accepting low-paying jobs or relying on their parents' pensions, leading to the emergence of a new working class known as "rotten-tail kids." This term, popularized on social media, draws a comparison to "rotten-tail buildings," referring to the numerous unfinished homes that have burdened China's economy since 2021.
This year, a record number of college graduates are navigating a challenging job market, depressed by COVID-19-related disruptions and regulatory crackdowns on the finance, tech, and education sectors. Youth unemployment, for the approximately 100 million Chinese aged 16-24, exceeded 20% for the first time in April 2023. After reaching a peak of 21.3% in June 2023, the government paused the data series to reassess the methodology. However, the reconfigured unemployment rate for youth still climbed to 17.1% in July 2024, coinciding with the graduation of 11.79 million college students in an economy still struggling with a real estate crisis.
President Xi Jinping has emphasized that addressing youth unemployment is a top priority. The government has encouraged job fairs and implemented business-friendly policies to promote hiring. Despite these efforts, many college graduates find that the job opportunities and upward mobility once promised by a degree are becoming increasingly unattainable.
Some young people, unable to find work, have returned to their hometowns to live as "full-time children," dependent on their parents' retirement income. Even those with advanced degrees are not immune to the challenges. Graduates are often faced with two choices: lowering their job expectations or taking any available work to make ends meet. Some have even turned to crime.
Zephyr Cao, a 27-year-old with a master's degree from China Foreign Affairs University, has returned to his home province of Hebei and stopped seeking full-time employment due to low wages that made him question the value of his education. He is now considering pursuing a Ph.D. in the hope of better opportunities in the future.
Similarly, Amada Chen, a recent graduate from Hubei University of Chinese Medicine, quit her sales job after only one month due to a toxic work environment and poor pay. Despite applying for over 130 jobs, she found herself offered mainly sales or e-commerce positions, which did not match her qualifications. She is now contemplating a career change to modeling.
The issue of joblessness among college graduates is not new in China. The country's rapid expansion of university enrollment in 1999 aimed to create a more educated workforce to support its booming economy. However, the supply of graduates has consistently outpaced job availability, a concern that resurfaced in 2007 and remains relevant as more degree holders enter the labor market.
The future outlook is uncertain, even for those with majors aligned with market needs. Shou Chen, a third-year artificial intelligence major at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, has struggled to secure an internship despite numerous applications and is pessimistic about the job market. According to a study published in June by China Higher Education Research, the supply of tertiary students will continue to exceed demand until 2037. The number of new college graduates is expected to peak at around 18 million in 2034 before declining due to falling fertility rates.