On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin issued a stark warning, stating that if the West allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles, it would equate to direct conflict between the West and Russia. He emphasized that such an action would fundamentally change the nature of the ongoing war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has long called for Western allies to provide Ukraine with advanced long-range missiles, such as U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadows, to disrupt Russia's capacity to launch attacks.

In some of his most assertive remarks on the subject to date, Putin argued that the involvement of NATO personnel in guiding and programming these missiles—due to Ukraine's lack of technical capacity—would mean that NATO countries were directly involved in the conflict. He stressed that this would not merely be a matter of allowing Ukraine to use these weapons but a decision that would draw NATO nations, including the U.S. and European countries, into the war.

"If this decision is made, it will result in the direct participation of NATO countries in the war, which would drastically alter the conflict," Putin told Russian state television. He hinted at "appropriate decisions" Russia would be forced to take in response to this new level of threat but did not specify what actions might be taken. In the past, Putin has suggested arming Western adversaries with Russian weapons to target NATO nations and mentioned deploying conventional missiles within striking distance of the U.S. and Europe.

Russia, as the largest nuclear power, is also revising its nuclear doctrine, with an influential Russian hawk advocating for changes that would allow Moscow to use nuclear weapons against countries supporting NATO's involvement in Ukraine. In the meantime, Russia is conducting significant naval exercises with China and may impose restrictions on key commodity exports.

The West views the question of permitting Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia as a response to what it considers Moscow's escalation of the war, with allegations that Russia has received ballistic missiles from Iran—a claim Tehran has denied as "ugly propaganda."

The conflict, which began with Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, has triggered the largest standoff between Russia and the West since the Cold War. Putin frames the war as an existential struggle against a declining, morally decayed West, accusing Western nations of humiliating Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 by expanding into territories Moscow considers its sphere of influence, including Ukraine. The West, along with Ukraine, sees Russia's invasion as an imperial land grab and is determined to defeat Russia militarily. Currently, Russia controls over 18% of Ukraine’s territory.