In a stark reminder of the escalating climate crisis, new projections from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service suggest that 2024 will likely be the warmest year on record, with global average temperatures expected to rise over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This increase surpasses the symbolic threshold set by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, making it the first calendar year to breach this critical limit.
The dramatic rise in temperatures this year stems primarily from human-driven climate change, though natural factors like the recent El Niño have also contributed to the overall warming. The El Niño phase, which peaked in early 2024, led to elevated ocean temperatures that intensified heat globally, further propelling the year’s record-breaking temperatures.
Data from Copernicus shows that 2024’s temperatures are set to exceed the previous record, 1.48°C, set in 2023. According to scientists, a significant drop in global temperatures in the final months of the year would be required to prevent this record from being broken—an outcome considered highly improbable given recent trends.
“This latest record sends another stark warning to governments at COP29 of the urgent need for action to limit any further warming,” said Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society. COP29, set to begin next week in Azerbaijan, will bring together global leaders to address climate change challenges amid growing concerns over the increasingly severe impact of rising temperatures.
Although breaching the 1.5°C mark this year would not yet signal a permanent failure of the Paris Agreement—since the goal is based on 20-year averages—scientists warn that each year’s overstep draws the world closer to surpassing this limit for the long term. Last month, a UN report estimated that, based on current policies, the world could see a temperature rise of over 3°C by the end of this century.
“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records,” said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of Copernicus, underscoring the urgency of cutting emissions. The warming has intensified extreme weather events worldwide, causing more destructive storms, hotter heatwaves, and heavier rainfall.
Looking forward, many scientists anticipate the arrival of the cooler La Niña phase, which could temporarily lower temperatures in 2025. However, as greenhouse gas levels continue to climb, researchers caution that further records are likely on the horizon.
"The warmer temperatures are making storms more intense, heatwaves hotter, and heavy rainfall more extreme, with clearly seen consequences for people all around the world,” explained Professor Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading. “Stabilizing global temperatures by reaching net-zero emissions is the only way to stop adding to the costs of these disasters."
As the global community gathers for COP29, these projections serve as a pressing reminder of the need for immediate, unified climate action.