Beijing: China’s exports likely saw growth in November, though at a slower pace compared to October’s strong performance. This continued positive trend is attributed to Chinese exporters likely frontloading shipments to avoid potential tariff hikes from the incoming U.S. administration.

According to a Reuters poll of 22 economists, outbound shipments are projected to have increased by 8.5% year-on-year in November, down from a 12.7% rise in October. Imports are expected to have grown slightly by 0.3%, recovering from a 2.3% decline in October.

This forecast suggests another month of positive trade data, which defies the broader global slowdown in demand. China's imports are expected to reflect sustained demand for chipmaking equipment, driven by U.S. chip restrictions.

Meanwhile, South Korea, a key indicator of Chinese imports, reported a fourth consecutive month of slowing export growth in November, reaching a 14-month low as shipments to both the U.S. and China declined amid tariff uncertainty.

Economists believe Chinese exporters rushed shipments ahead of anticipated higher tariffs under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who had threatened 10% additional tariffs on Chinese goods after pledging to implement tariffs above 60% during his campaign. Even before Trump’s election, analysts noted that Chinese factories were cutting prices to attract orders, preparing for tariff risks from the U.S.

Additionally, ongoing tensions with the European Union, which is considering tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, could escalate Beijing’s trade conflicts with the West.


China’s factory activity showed modest expansion for a second straight month in November, with manufacturers reporting the best business conditions in seven months, which should support the growth in exports, according to Barclays Research.

Upbeat exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s otherwise struggling economy, which faces weak domestic demand and a protracted property market crisis. The government has implemented stimulus measures to stabilize the economy, including a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt package last month to shore up local governments and property developers. Further stimulus is expected, though details on timing and size are still unclear.

Government advisors are calling for more stimulus ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference later this month, where top leaders will discuss policies and goals for 2025, urging caution about becoming overly dependent on exports for economic growth.

China’s trade surplus for November is forecasted at $95 billion, a slight decrease from October’s $95.72 billion.