Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, has swiftly assumed control of Syria following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. The group, previously operating as an administration in Syria's northwest, has wasted no time in establishing its rule, appointing interim leaders, deploying police, and engaging with foreign envoys.
Mohammed al-Bashir, formerly the head of HTS's Idlib administration, has been appointed interim prime minister, underscoring HTS's dominance among the rebel factions that fought Assad's regime for over 13 years. Bashir announced plans to hold power until March 2025, focusing on restoring security, repatriating refugees, and rebuilding essential services.
However, concerns have emerged over the inclusivity of the new government. HTS, which remains classified as a terrorist organization by the United States and other nations, has drawn criticism for filling key positions with figures from Idlib while sidelining other political and ethnic groups.
Despite its controversial past, including ties to al-Qaeda until 2016, HTS has reassured Syrians of its commitment to protecting minority rights. Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has reiterated promises of safeguarding all ethnicities and faiths. Yet, opposition figures and diplomats have voiced doubts about the inclusiveness of the transitional process.
Zakaria Malahifji, secretary general of the Syrian National Movement, criticized the lack of consultation in forming the interim government, emphasizing Syria's diverse cultural and ethnic makeup.
"Syrian society is diverse... frankly, this is concerning," Malahifji said.
HTS faces the daunting task of stabilizing a war-ravaged country. Mohammed Ghazal, a key administrator brought from Idlib, described Syria as a "collapsed state" and outlined plans to improve public services and increase wages. Currently, salaries average $25 per month, but HTS aims to raise the minimum wage to $100.
The group’s efforts to restore order include deploying police from Idlib to Damascus, although their resources remain stretched. Rivalries among armed factions, particularly in border regions, further threaten stability.
The international community has urged HTS to adopt an inclusive approach. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the importance of a transition aligned with U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for non-sectarian governance and a Syrian-led constitutional process.
Some diplomats have expressed unease over HTS's dominance in political discussions, noting the absence of key opposition figures in Damascus. "The inclusiveness of the constitutional reform process will be a critical test," one diplomat said.
Analysts warn of risks associated with HTS's consolidation of power. Yezid Sayigh of the Carnegie Middle East Center noted the potential for authoritarianism cloaked in religious governance but suggested Syria's diverse society could prevent any single group from monopolizing influence.
Joshua Landis, a Syria expert, emphasized the need for HTS to balance swift authority with inclusive governance. "Sharaa must assert authority quickly to stop a descent into chaos but also bring in technocrats and representatives of Syria's diverse communities," Landis said.
With HTS under pressure to prove its commitment to inclusivity and stability, Syria’s path forward remains uncertain, balancing between rebuilding and avoiding the pitfalls of authoritarian rule.