The days of unwavering American commitment to Europe’s defense against Russia appear to be fading. In their place—at least while Donald Trump holds the presidency—is a more transactional approach, leaving European leaders scrambling for alternatives.
“The time has come for Europe to take far greater responsibility for its own defense,” U.S. Vice President JD Vance told policymakers at the Munich Security Conference in February.
In response, European nations have pledged to ramp up defense spending, both domestically and in support of Ukraine, with a focus on purchasing European-made weaponry. But a more dramatic solution is also gaining traction: the formation of a European nuclear deterrent.
A Shift Toward a European Nuclear Strategy
For decades, Europe has relied on the U.S. as its security guarantor, but with Washington’s reliability in question, some leaders are turning their gaze inward. Both France and the United Kingdom possess nuclear arsenals—France with approximately 290 warheads, the UK with 225 U.S.-designed Trident missiles—prompting discussions about whether Europe’s nuclear umbrella could be homegrown rather than American-made.
Recent statements from key European leaders signal a growing willingness to explore this path. French President Emmanuel Macron recently announced plans to “open the strategic debate on extending our nuclear deterrence to protect European allies.” His remarks followed calls from Germany’s expected next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, to initiate discussions with France and the UK on broadening their nuclear protections.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted that such proposals are “not new” and have surfaced in past discussions, while leaders from traditionally anti-nuclear nations like Sweden and Denmark have cautiously welcomed France’s willingness to explore the idea.
Historically, France’s nuclear arsenal has been fiercely independent—what President Charles de Gaulle once termed “French from end to end.” However, during the Cold War, Paris actively sought to extend its nuclear deterrence to European allies, a strategy that may now be making a return, according to historian Yannick Pincé of France’s Interdisciplinary Center for Strategic Studies (CIENS).
The UK, for its part, has made no public move to alter its nuclear stance, though its arsenal remains integrated into NATO’s command structure, providing a degree of strategic protection to European allies.
Hope for U.S. Recommitment Remains
Despite these discussions, some European leaders are still seeking reassurances from Washington. On Thursday, Polish President Andrzej Duda urged Trump to station U.S. nuclear weapons in Poland, drawing a parallel to Russia’s 2023 decision to place nuclear missiles in Belarus.
“I believe the time for this has come—and, in fact, it would be safer if those weapons were already here,” Duda told the Financial Times.
As Europe faces mounting uncertainty over NATO’s future, the continent’s leaders must decide whether to forge their own nuclear path or continue to rely on an increasingly unpredictable ally across the Atlantic.