The UK’s statistics watchdog has issued a strong warning to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), urging immediate action to reverse a worrying decline in the quality of vital economic data. The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) emphasized that the deteriorating standards—especially in labour market figures such as unemployment rates—pose risks to public trust and effective policy-making.

At the heart of the concern is the declining reliability of the Labour Force Survey, a crucial tool used to compile employment data. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the ONS has struggled to maintain adequate participation rates, undermining the accuracy of its results. This shortfall has not only drawn criticism from economists but has also created complications for the Bank of England in forming monetary policy decisions.

The OSR has now demanded that the ONS produce a clear improvement plan within the next four weeks. This plan must outline how it intends to stabilize and restore confidence in its core statistics. Furthermore, the regulator wants a strategy within three months that details how the ONS will prioritize quality improvements and allocate resources more effectively across its statistical outputs.

In addition to technical failings, the OSR flagged internal management issues and questioned the ONS’s responsiveness to early warnings. According to the regulator, concerns were raised as far back as 2021, but sufficient action was not taken in time to prevent a slump in data integrity.

The ONS has acknowledged the regulator's findings and admitted that it needs to refocus efforts on improving the core quality of its outputs. However, the agency warned that full restoration of trust in labour force data might not be achievable until 2027, as new methods and data collection systems take time to implement.

Meanwhile, a separate government-commissioned review into the performance and accountability of the ONS is also underway. This additional scrutiny highlights growing frustration within official and financial circles about the institution’s recent performance and its broader impact on evidence-based governance.

The future of the UK’s data credibility now hinges on how swiftly and effectively the ONS responds to these pressing calls for reform.