Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its year-end gold price forecast, projecting the precious metal to reach $3,700 per troy ounce by the close of 2025. This bullish revision—up from the bank's previous estimate of $3,300—is driven by a combination of strong central bank purchases and a growing global appetite for gold amid escalating fears of a U.S. recession.
The investment bank highlighted that central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have ramped up their gold acquisitions far beyond historical averages. Goldman now expects monthly central bank demand to average 80 tonnes, a notable increase from its earlier projection of 70 tonnes and nearly five times the pre-2022 norm of 17 tonnes per month. This shift reflects a broader trend of governments diversifying reserves away from traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar, with gold seen as a stable hedge during turbulent times.
Simultaneously, Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) inflows into gold are gaining momentum, as wary investors seek safe-haven assets in light of economic uncertainty. Goldman’s analysts have assigned a 45% probability to a U.S. recession within the next year, a factor they believe will continue to fuel investment in gold-based ETFs.
Gold has already demonstrated impressive performance in 2025, having surged over 23% year-to-date and recently breaking through the $3,200 per ounce barrier for the first time—a historic milestone reflecting its resilience amid inflationary and geopolitical pressures.
Goldman’s medium-term outlook suggests that gold could climb even higher under more aggressive buying scenarios. Should central bank purchases rise to 100 tonnes per month, prices could hit $3,810/toz by the end of 2025. Additionally, if a full-fledged recession triggers a return to pandemic-era ETF buying levels, the bank sees a potential peak near $3,880/toz.
In summary, Goldman Sachs' revised forecast underscores a growing consensus: in a world clouded by economic uncertainty, gold is regaining its luster as both a strategic reserve asset and a frontline defense against market volatility.