The first major peace talks between Russia and Ukraine since March 2022 opened in Istanbul, but prospects for a breakthrough remain bleak as key leaders stayed away. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who initially proposed the talks, declined to attend in person, sending his presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky to lead Moscow’s delegation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also opted not to participate directly, instead dispatching Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to represent Kyiv.

The absences of both heads of state have cast a shadow over the negotiations, with Ukrainian officials expressing disappointment and skepticism. President Zelenskiy criticized Putin’s decision not to attend, calling the Russian delegation “decorative” and suggesting that the lack of direct engagement signals a disinterest in serious negotiations. “We can't be running around the world looking for Putin,” Zelenskiy stated during a press briefing.

The United States also expressed doubt regarding the effectiveness of the talks. Former President Donald Trump, who has taken an active interest in the conflict since leaving office, claimed that no meaningful resolution could happen without a one-on-one meeting between himself and President Putin. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced this view, describing the talks as stuck in a “logjam” due to the absence of top-level Russian involvement.

The core agenda of the talks includes negotiating a ceasefire. Ukraine has proposed an immediate 30-day truce, while Russia has pushed for broader discussions on ceasefire conditions and security guarantees before agreeing to any pause in fighting. Meanwhile, fighting on the ground continues. Russian forces recently announced the capture of two strategic settlements in eastern Ukraine, a claim that has yet to be independently verified by Kyiv.

Observers from the United Nations, the European Union, and Turkey are attending the talks as facilitators. Turkish officials have urged both sides to remain committed to dialogue, even in the face of early setbacks and limited expectations.

The war in Ukraine, now in its third year, has led to tens of thousands of casualties and widespread destruction. While the Istanbul talks mark a diplomatic milestone, the absence of the principal actors involved in the conflict has left many wondering if real progress can be made. As both sides hold their ground on core issues, the path to a lasting peace remains as uncertain as ever.

Global leaders and mediators continue to call for sustained efforts and political will to end the conflict, but without the involvement of top leadership, the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement remains slim.