Moscow: Russia has declared a grim outlook for the future of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty with the United States, citing the complete breakdown of diplomatic relations between the two nations. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, speaking to reporters, stated that with bilateral ties "in ruins," the likelihood of renewing or replacing the landmark treaty is "close to zero."
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in 2010, is the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow. The treaty limits both countries to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and includes verification measures that promote transparency and predictability. It is set to expire in February 2026, and so far, no negotiations for a successor agreement have taken place.
Ryabkov’s remarks underscore the depth of the current geopolitical divide, fueled by conflicts in Ukraine, global power realignment, and increasingly adversarial rhetoric. He emphasized that Washington’s stance has made any constructive dialogue on arms control “virtually impossible.”
A major point of contention, Ryabkov noted, is the U.S.'s proposed “Golden Dome” initiative—a massive $175 billion missile defense system backed by former President Donald Trump. The plan envisions an advanced satellite network capable of detecting and neutralizing missile threats globally. Russian officials argue the system would disrupt strategic balance and provoke a new arms race by potentially neutralizing Russia’s nuclear deterrent.
Ryabkov warned that the deployment of such a space-based defense infrastructure could be interpreted as a threat to Russia’s national security. He added that Russia will take “necessary countermeasures” to preserve strategic parity if the U.S. moves forward with the project.
Complicating the situation further are recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian air bases, including those suspected to house elements of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Moscow has accused Kyiv, with tacit Western backing, of targeting strategic deterrence infrastructure—an accusation the West has denied. The Russian government has vowed a proportionate response.
Security analysts warn that the expiration of New START without a replacement would not only dismantle decades of arms control architecture but also open the door to unchecked nuclear buildup. Experts suggest that Russia could increase its deployed warheads by 50 to 60 percent if not bound by treaty limits, further destabilizing global security.
“The world is witnessing the unraveling of the last thread of nuclear constraint between the two largest atomic powers,” said a European arms control expert. “Once New START expires without an alternative, we’re back to the dangerous uncertainty of Cold War dynamics.”
The Biden administration, while expressing concern, has not commented in detail on Ryabkov’s statement. U.S. officials previously indicated willingness to engage in talks, but Russia’s position amid the ongoing Ukraine war and its alignment with China has made diplomatic progress nearly impossible.
As the clock ticks toward February 2026, the specter of a new nuclear arms race looms large—underscoring the urgency of rekindling diplomatic dialogue in an era marked more by confrontation than cooperation.