Beijing: In what appears to be a calculated geopolitical maneuver, China is actively pursuing a realignment of South Asia’s regional architecture by marginalizing the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and forging a deeper alliance with Pakistan. This evolving partnership is being viewed as a potential blueprint for a new regional bloc, aimed at countering India’s longstanding dominance in the region.
The move comes amid the growing paralysis within SAARC, which has been dormant since 2014, primarily due to the intractable hostilities between India and Pakistan. With no SAARC summits held for over a decade and growing frustration among smaller member states, China is reportedly working to fill the vacuum by integrating its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) more deeply into South Asian economies, especially those with weak institutional checks and pro-China political elites.
Central to this strategy is China’s renewed engagement with Pakistan. Bilateral talks between the two nations have intensified in recent months, with discussions covering a broad spectrum of sectors including trade, defense, infrastructure, digital cooperation, and regional connectivity. A key element under focus is the proposed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Phase II (CPEC 2.0) a massive expansion of the infrastructure and energy network under the BRI umbrella.
Strategic analysts suggest that China views Pakistan not just as an "all-weather friend" but as a gateway to Central Asia and the Middle East, and a reliable partner in offsetting India’s influence. Sources indicate that this alliance may soon include Iran and select Central Asian republics, which have also shown interest in alternative economic forums that are not led by India.
While China and Pakistan push forward with talks of forming a new economic and strategic bloc, SAARC continues to languish. The body has remained functionally inactive, with no consensus among member states on pressing economic or security issues. Observers note that India’s pivot to BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) is a direct response to SAARC’s stagnation and to avoid being entangled in diplomatic deadlocks involving Pakistan.
BIMSTEC, which includes countries like Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar (excluding Pakistan), is rapidly becoming India’s preferred regional platform for trade, energy, and connectivity cooperation, sidestepping the SAARC impasse.
The emerging coalition being discussed reportedly envisions participation from Iran and Central Asian nations, leveraging shared interests in regional energy routes, trade corridors, and opposition to Western-led global frameworks. Pakistan, which has long felt sidelined in SAARC due to India’s regional clout, is said to be exploring this new multilateral format as a platform to assert its influence more effectively.
Should this initiative take formal shape, it may signal the end of SAARC as a viable regional bloc and introduce a multi-polar South Asia, divided between a China–Pakistan-led grouping and an India-led BIMSTEC alliance.
Such a shift carries significant implications. Smaller South Asian nations may face increasing pressure to choose sides or navigate a delicate balance between these competing power centers. The competition for influence over trade routes, infrastructure projects, and digital governance could intensify, reshaping the geopolitical contours of the region.
As of now, no formal announcement has been made regarding the new bloc, but diplomatic activity in Islamabad and Beijing suggests that the groundwork is well underway. Regional and global observers are watching closely, as any structural change in South Asia’s alliance system will have far-reaching effects on stability, security, and development across the continent.