Kuwait: Kuwait’s Oil Minister Tariq Al-Roumi stated on August 7 that OPEC is closely monitoring global oil market developments, particularly in light of recent comments by former US President Donald Trump regarding Russian oil exports. He noted that the oil market remains healthy, with steady demand growth, and projected that crude prices would stay below $72 per barrel in the near term.

This update follows a recent dip in global oil prices, which dropped nearly 1 percent to an eight-week low. The decline came amid signs of thawing US-Russia relations, which have raised questions about the future of American sanctions on Russian energy exports. These developments have injected new uncertainty into the market, prompting OPEC to maintain vigilance over potential geopolitical and economic shifts.

Despite this uncertainty, oil prices made a modest recovery later in the day, buoyed by robust US demand and a significant 3 million-barrel drawdown in crude inventories. Brent crude rose by 20 cents to reach \$67.09, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed by 22 cents to $64.57. Analysts expect WTI to trade within the $60 to $70 range over the coming weeks, with fluctuations driven by market reactions to policy changes and supply dynamics.

One of the most significant concerns currently facing the market is the planned output increase by OPEC+ members. Starting in September, the group—particularly the coalition of eight major producers known as the "Voluntary Eight" (V8)—will raise production by a combined 547,000 barrels per day. The move is seen as an attempt to regain lost market share but has sparked fears of oversupply and continued price pressure.

In parallel, Russia is expected to increase its crude exports to approximately 2 million barrels per day this month. This decision comes after a series of drone attacks shut down several of its refineries, prompting Moscow to redirect oil for international sales. To meet the shipping demands, additional tanker capacity is being secured, adding to the global oil glut.

While US demand remains a stabilizing factor for the market, the combination of rising production from OPEC+ and Russia, along with shifting geopolitical dynamics, has created a complex and fragile outlook. The global energy community is now watching closely to see how the situation evolves, particularly in relation to potential new US sanctions and the reaction of key buyers such as India and China.

In the short term, prices are expected to remain relatively stable, supported by demand fundamentals. However, in the medium term, the increased supply from major producers could weigh heavily on the market, unless demand accelerates or new disruptions emerge. OPEC’s continued engagement and responsiveness will be key to maintaining balance in a volatile environment.