Donald Trump set out to weaken China and restore American dominance, but less than a year into his return to power, his tariff wars, fractured alliances, and erratic diplomacy are doing the opposite strengthening Xi Jinping’s hand, isolating the United States, and accelerating the very rise of Beijing that Washington once vowed to stop.
When Donald Trump stormed back into the White House, Beijing braced for a storm. The Chinese leadership, scarred by years of American sanctions and technology restrictions, feared another barrage of economic warfare. But less than a year later, Xi Jinping looks more confident than ever so confident that he will be hosting Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin, and nearly 20 world leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin this weekend, believing he has managed not just to survive Trump’s wrath but to bend it to China’s advantage.
Trump’s actions, intended to project American strength, are paradoxically bolstering Beijing’s global clout. Instead of isolating China, his tariff wars and erratic diplomacy have left America estranged from allies and partners, while China quietly reaps the rewards of patience and preparation. The irony is unmistakable: Trump promised to “Make America Great Again,” but his policies may be accelerating China’s rise instead.
Trump’s Gamble, Xi’s Victory
Donald Trump set out to weaken China and restore American dominance, but less than a year into his return to power, his tariff wars, fractured alliances, and erratic diplomacy are doing the opposite strengthening Xi Jinping’s hand, isolating the United States, and accelerating the very rise of Beijing that Washington once vowed to stop.
During the campaign, Trump vowed to be tougher than Joe Biden on China, accusing Beijing of stealing jobs, technology, and influence. Early in his term, he delivered on the rhetoric slapping sweeping tariffs, blocking high-end semiconductor sales, and warning of Beijing’s grip on critical minerals and ports. On paper, it looked like a strategy to choke China’s economic power.
But Xi’s Beijing was ready. In a calculated gamble, China retaliated with tariffs of its own, some exceeding 100%. More importantly, Beijing squeezed exports of rare earth magnets and minerals vital to American industries from electric vehicles to defense equipment. The shockwaves rattled Wall Street and pushed the Trump administration into a corner. By May, Washington signed an agreement in Geneva to ease tariffs and even lifted the semiconductor ban. Xi’s gamble had paid off. Trump blinked first.
For China, this was more than an economic win it was proof that the United States, for all its power, was vulnerable to Beijing’s leverage. Years of investing in self-reliance, diversifying trade away from the US, and embedding itself deeper into global supply chains gave Xi the upper hand.
America’s Allies, America’s Loss
What makes Trump’s strategy more baffling is his choice of targets. Instead of forging a united front with allies to check China’s rise, Trump has alienated them. Canada, Japan, the EU, Brazil, South Korea and even India have all faced the brunt of new tariffs. Washington’s closest partners now question whether the US is still a reliable leader, with even NATO allies contemplating nuclear options independent of America’s umbrella.
Meanwhile, Xi is extracting concessions without firing a shot. Trump’s administration has softened its stance on Taiwan, ignored human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and allowed China to strengthen its grip on global trade. By singling out India with punitive tariffs while going easy on Beijing, Washington risks pushing Delhi closer to China at a time when New Delhi is emerging as a key player in the Indo-Pacific.
The Economic Boomerang
The domestic fallout is equally grim. Tariffs, after all, are taxes on consumers. Prices are rising, small businesses are closing, and US workers are losing jobs. According to Budget Lab, America’s average tariff rate in August reached 18.6% the highest since the Great Depression-era Smoot-Hawley Act. That act deepened America’s economic woes in the 1930s; Trump risks repeating history.
At the same time, the US is grappling with a ballooning debt of $37 trillion and rising interest costs that now exceed defense spending. By undermining the Federal Reserve’s independence and pressuring it for political gains, Trump is shaking the very foundation of global trust in the dollar. As Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff warns, the dollar’s status as the world’s safe currency no longer looks unassailable.
A World Reshaped in Beijing’s Image
The broader consequences are geopolitical. Trump’s “America First” tariffs are making other nations more dependent on China, not less. Countries targeted by US tariffs are turning to Beijing for markets, loans, and trade. Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative, once criticized for overreach, is finding new takers as Washington turns inward.
Even more troubling is Trump’s worldview. Like Nixon in 1972, he may seek a “grand bargain” with Beijing, ceding influence in Asia in exchange for concessions closer to home. For India, Japan, and others betting on US support to balance China, this would be a strategic earthquake.
The Way Forward
The lesson for countries like India, Brazil, and even Europe is clear: neither superpower can be trusted unconditionally. China seeks dominance, the US under Trump is unpredictable, and the global order is entering uncharted waters. For India, the path forward lies in strengthening partnerships with other democracies Japan, South Korea, the EU, Canada, Australia, and South Africa while avoiding over-dependence on either Washington or Beijing.
Trump may believe he is restoring American greatness, but the unintended reality is that his policies are clearing the runway for China’s ascent. A more confident Xi Jinping, hosting the SCO summit, is proof enough that the world’s balance of power is shifting not in Washington’s favor.