New Delhi: India is weighing a bold and unconventional move to secure its critical mineral supply chain by exploring a deal with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), a powerful rebel group in northern Myanmar.
The move comes as China, which dominates the global rare-earth industry, has imposed fresh export curbs, disrupting supplies of minerals crucial for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and advanced defense systems.
The Ministry of Mines has directed state-owned IREL (India) Ltd and private firm Midwest Advanced Materials to obtain and test samples from Kachin State, where the KIA controls a cluster of mines. These deposits are rich in heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, key elements for high-performance magnets used in wind turbines, EV motors, and military technologies. India’s decision reflects a broader effort to reduce dependence on China, which processes nearly 90 percent of the world’s rare earths. New Delhi has been investing heavily in alternative sources, but the KIA-controlled mines represent one of the few options available after Beijing restricted exports earlier this year.
In October 2024, the KIA seized control of the Chipwi–Pangwa mining zone in Kachin State, disrupting shipments to China and halving cross-border exports. The shift created a supply crunch, driving up global prices and putting Myanmar at the center of a geopolitical race for minerals. China has responded by backing the United Wa State Army, a well-armed militia in Shan State, which has recently launched new mining operations to restore Beijing’s access.
This tug-of-war has turned Myanmar’s conflict zones into contested grounds for one of the world’s most strategic commodities.
The United States is also exploring options to secure access to Myanmar’s rare-earth deposits. Senior members of the Trump administration have held discussions on whether to work directly with the junta, engage with rebel groups such as the KIA, or collaborate through the Quad alliance with India, Japan, and Australia. For India, the outreach to the KIA is not only about minerals but also about expanding its influence in a region where China has long dominated. A deal could give New Delhi leverage in global supply chains while aligning with U.S. and allied interests to curb Chinese control.
Despite the potential gains, the strategy is fraught with challenges. Engaging a non-state armed group raises legal and diplomatic complications, particularly with Myanmar’s military junta still in power. Mining in conflict zones also risks fueling instability and worsening environmental degradation, as unregulated rare-earth extraction has already scarred large areas of northern Myanmar. Logistical hurdles add to the complexity. Even if agreements are reached, India lacks the infrastructure to process rare earths at scale, meaning it would still rely on international partners to refine the minerals into usable forms.
Experts say India’s push highlights a global scramble for critical minerals that will shape the future of clean energy and defense industries. Myanmar, despite its instability, has emerged as a pivotal player simply by virtue of its vast deposits. “Rare earths are no longer just an economic issue—they are a strategic resource,” said a senior analyst in New Delhi. “For India, working with the KIA may be risky, but the alternative is continued dependence on China.”
As India weighs its next steps, the outcome of its negotiations with the KIA could redefine its role in the rare-earth supply chain. Success would boost New Delhi’s self-reliance and geopolitical standing. Failure, however, could leave India caught between China’s dominance and Myanmar’s volatility.
Either way, the battle over Myanmar’s rare-earths is set to intensify, with India, China, and the U.S. all vying for influence over one of the world’s most critical resources.