Jakarta: Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued a stark warning that the country is likely to face a heightened risk of flooding and related disasters in the coming months, as the annual wet season begins to unfold with greater intensity than in previous years. Officials cautioned that the season, which typically stretches from September through April, is already showing signs of excess rainfall, raising alarms over the vulnerability of communities across the archipelago.
Dwikorita Karnawati, the head of BMKG, explained that the unusual intensity of rainfall is likely to peak at different times depending on the region, with Sumatra and Borneo expected to experience the worst downpours between November and December 2025, while Java, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua are forecast to bear the brunt of the deluge in January and February 2026. These projections underscore not only the geographical vastness of the challenge but also the urgency of preparation, as the pattern of extreme rains is expected to exceed the country’s normal coping capacity.
The agency pointed to recent weather events as a forewarning of what lies ahead. In Bali, for instance, torrential rains over a two-day period produced levels of precipitation usually expected over an entire month, leading to widespread inundation. This sudden and heavy downpour caused severe flooding in Denpasar and six other districts, leaving at least eighteen people dead, more than five hundred displaced, and vast stretches of roads, houses, and agricultural lands submerged.
Officials emphasized that such incidents are no longer isolated or rare, but are becoming an increasingly common feature of Indonesia’s climate reality. With floodwaters rising rapidly and drainage systems overwhelmed in a matter of hours, the risks of landslides in mountainous regions and overflow in riverine areas are mounting, compounding the dangers faced by millions of residents.
Adding to the concern is the fact that this year’s dry season was notably shorter and wetter than usual, meaning that much of the soil across the islands is already saturated. According to BMKG, this reduces the land’s natural ability to absorb incoming rainwater and heightens the probability of floods during the wettest months. From November through February, the agency has designated the flood risk as “high” across several key provinces, warning that the likelihood of sudden disaster events is significant.
The government has been urged to act swiftly to strengthen early warning systems, conduct preventive dredging of rivers and drainage channels, and reinforce critical infrastructure such as dams, levees, and floodgates. The agency has also stressed the importance of mobilizing disaster preparedness units, ensuring that evacuation plans are in place, and alerting communities about landslide-prone zones, particularly in remote or hilly areas where rescue operations could be delayed.
Authorities argue that the challenge ahead is not merely one of weather but also of governance and resilience. Indonesia, as an archipelagic nation straddling the equator, is inherently prone to extreme weather variations. However, the increasing frequency and severity of storms and floods in recent years highlight the broader impacts of climate change, which is intensifying rainfall patterns across Southeast Asia.
For the Indonesian government, the wet season now poses a dual challenge: managing the immediate humanitarian risks while also investing in longer-term adaptation strategies. Without improved urban planning, resilient infrastructure, and stronger environmental safeguards, experts warn that the cycle of destruction and recovery will only deepen, straining national resources and leaving vulnerable populations at risk.