Manila: The Philippines has voiced fresh concerns over China’s newly announced plan to declare Scarborough Shoal a marine nature reserve, warning that the move could conceal a deeper strategy of consolidating control in the disputed South China Sea. Philippine defense officials stressed that while the initiative is framed in environmental terms, it may serve as a prelude to occupation or militarization similar to what occurred at Mischief Reef decades ago.
General Romeo Brawner Jr., Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, said the military is “closely watching” Chinese activities at Scarborough Shoal. “If they start to build structures there, that will change the dynamics, and we will be ready with diplomatic, legal, and other responses,” Brawner noted. His statement comes against the backdrop of heightened maritime tensions, as both nations lay claim to the shoal, located within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Scarborough Shoal, known locally as Bajo de Masinloc, has been a flashpoint since 2012 when China seized control after a prolonged standoff with the Philippines. Since then, Beijing has maintained a steady presence, with coast guard and fishing vessels patrolling the area. For Manila, the fear is not only about sovereignty but also about livelihoods, as the shoal is a traditional fishing ground vital to Filipino communities.
The situation recalls the fate of Mischief Reef, which China gradually occupied in the 1990s and later transformed into a heavily fortified artificial island with runways, radars, and missile systems. Philippine leaders are determined to avoid a repeat of that scenario at Scarborough.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in 2016 that China’s sweeping “nine-dash line” claim over the South China Sea had no legal basis, affirming that features like Scarborough Shoal fall within the Philippines’ EEZ and remain common fishing grounds for neighboring states. Despite the ruling, China has consistently rejected the decision and expanded its presence in the region.
By framing its Scarborough initiative as a “marine reserve,” analysts say Beijing may be attempting to normalize control while restricting access under the guise of conservation. For the Philippines, the risk is that ecological arguments could pave the way for permanent infrastructure.
The dispute over Scarborough Shoal is not merely a bilateral issue. The South China Sea is a vital global trade artery, and any attempt to fortify new positions there could provoke reactions from the wider international community. Allies such as the United States, Japan, and Australia have repeatedly expressed support for the Philippines and a rules-based order in the contested waters.
For now, Manila is balancing vigilance with restraint. Philippine officials are preparing diplomatic protests and public campaigns to highlight the dangers of militarization. Yet they also stress the need for continued cooperation with allies and ASEAN partners to prevent unilateral changes on the ground.
As the Philippines keeps a close eye on Scarborough Shoal, the coming weeks may prove decisive in determining whether China’s marine reserve plan is a genuine conservation effort or a strategic maneuver. For Filipino leaders, the lesson of Mischief Reef remains clear: once infrastructure is established, reversing it becomes nearly impossible.
The unfolding situation underscores a larger struggle not only over territory and resources but also over principles of international law, regional stability, and the future of one of the world’s most contested seas.