Oslo: As the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize approaches, experts say U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to claim the coveted award, despite his persistent lobbying. Analysts argue that Trump’s policies and actions, which many see as undermining international norms, run counter to the principles the Nobel Committee honors.

“The Peace Prize committee values courage, integrity, and genuine contributions to international fellowship,” said experts following the announcement timeline. Trump’s vocal campaign to secure the award, they suggest, may even work against him. The five-member committee operates independently, insulated from outside pressures, prioritizing Alfred Nobel’s original intent over political influence.

Instead, observers anticipate that the committee may recognize a humanitarian organization or institution that has faced extraordinary challenges in the past year, partly exacerbated by U.S. aid reductions. Potential candidates include UNHCR, UNICEF, the Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders, or local grassroots initiatives like Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, among others.

Historians and Nobel experts are firm in their assessment. “He has no chance to get the Peace Prize at all,” said Asle Sveen, citing Trump’s support for Israel in the Gaza conflict and his attempts at rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin as evidence. According to Alfred Nobel’s will, the prize is intended for the person who has “done the most or best to advance fellowship among nations,” a criterion that Trump, experts argue, does not meet.

Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, highlighted several policy decisions that weaken Trump’s candidacy. “He has withdrawn the U.S. from the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accord, initiated trade disputes with longtime allies, and shown little commitment to multilateral cooperation,” she told Reuters. “These actions hardly align with the profile of a leader advancing global peace.”

Although the Nobel Peace Prize has occasionally been awarded to controversial figures Barack Obama less than eight months into his presidency, or Henry Kissinger during the Vietnam War these laureates were recognized for taking steps to correct or address the wrongs associated with their actions. Henrik Syse, a former member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, emphasized that past laureates who faced criticism had explicitly demonstrated efforts to rectify injustices, citing F.W. de Klerk’s joint award with Nelson Mandela in 1993 as an example.

Graeger noted that should Trump take meaningful steps such as persuading Putin to end the war in Ukraine or urging Israeli leaders to cease hostilities in Gaza he could potentially become a candidate. However, such outcomes have yet to materialize.

Trump’s lobbying for the Nobel Prize has been unprecedented in intensity, leveraging his platform as U.S. president to argue his case, including during speeches at the U.N. General Assembly. Yet, according to Asle Toje, deputy leader of the current Norwegian Nobel Committee, such influence campaigns often backfire. “These kinds of efforts generally have a negative effect. The committee prefers to deliberate in a room free from external pressures,” he explained.

Committee Chair Joergen Watne Frydnes echoed this sentiment, noting that the global attention surrounding the prize does not affect the committee’s deliberations. “All politicians hope to win the Nobel Peace Prize,” he said. “But the ideals of the prize—peace, human rights, democracy are the benchmarks we uphold. Media coverage and political lobbying do not sway our judgment.”

Looking beyond Trump, potential laureates for 2025 include humanitarian and peace-focused organizations, international legal bodies like the International Court of Justice, and institutions such as the United Nations, which celebrates its 80th anniversary this year. The committee could also spotlight journalists and press freedom advocates, in recognition of the record number of media workers killed while reporting this year, particularly in Gaza. Candidates could include the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders.

Other potential honorees include local peace mediators working to negotiate ceasefires or secure humanitarian aid in conflict zones, such as committees in the Central African Republic, the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding, or the Elders and Mediation Committee in Darfur. “Any of these groups would be deserving of recognition,” said Karim Haggag, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

In conclusion, while Trump has publicly campaigned for the 2025 Peace Prize, experts stress that the committee’s decision will center on measurable contributions to peace, humanitarian work, and the defense of democratic values, rather than political ambition or self-promotion.