Seoul: South Korea’s intelligence service believes there is a “high possibility” that a summit between the United States and North Korea could take place after March next year, reviving hopes for renewed diplomatic dialogue on the Korean Peninsula. The assessment, disclosed during a parliamentary audit, reflects growing anticipation that Pyongyang may seek a return to talks with Washington following years of diplomatic silence.
According to South Korean lawmaker Park Sun-won, who cited the National Intelligence Service (NIS), the agency’s recent analysis suggests that North Korea is strategically preparing for a potential diplomatic engagement once several key political and military events are completed in early 2026. These include the regime’s ruling Workers’ Party Congress and the country’s traditional military parade, both significant occasions that often serve as platforms for major political announcements.
The last high-profile meeting between the U.S. and North Korea took place in 2019, when then-President Donald Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi, Vietnam. Those talks ended abruptly without an agreement, leading to years of deadlock over nuclear disarmament and sanctions relief. Since then, Pyongyang has expanded its weapons testing program, while Washington and Seoul have strengthened joint military drills to deter further provocations.
The NIS’s latest projection comes amid renewed comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested during a visit to South Korea that he would be open to meeting Kim again “in the not-too-distant future.” This statement has fueled speculation that diplomatic backchannels may already be testing the waters for a future summit. While the White House has not issued a formal response, Seoul’s intelligence assessment indicates that both sides may be open to resuming communication under specific conditions.
Analysts believe North Korea’s calculus is rooted in both domestic and strategic motivations. By delaying any summit until after March, Kim Jong Un could use upcoming state events to reinforce his leadership internally while gauging the international environment, especially the policy direction of Washington. For the U.S., re-engagement with Pyongyang could present an opportunity to reassert influence in East Asia and stabilize one of the world’s most unpredictable flashpoints.
However, significant obstacles remain. The term “high chance” does not guarantee that the summit will materialize. Talks in the past have repeatedly collapsed over differences regarding denuclearization commitments, verification mechanisms, and sanctions relief. Moreover, North Korea has consistently demanded that Washington ease economic restrictions before any major negotiation, a condition the U.S. remains reluctant to meet without concrete disarmament steps.
Regional experts warn that geopolitical dynamics such as U.S. China competition and inter-Korean military tensions could complicate any future summit. Pyongyang’s closer ties with Moscow and Beijing, alongside its ongoing weapons development, might further shape the tone and scope of any dialogue with Washington.
Despite these challenges, Seoul’s projection introduces a sense of cautious optimism into an otherwise tense regional landscape. If realized, a U.S. North Korea summit in 2026 could mark a turning point in the long-stalled efforts toward peace and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. But for now, the prospect remains a strategic possibility dependent on timing, diplomacy, and mutual willingness to bridge the trust gap that has long defined relations between Washington and Pyongyang.