Brazil: As the world turns its eyes toward Belem, Brazil, for the 30th United Nations Climate Conference (COP30), the Amazon Earth’s largest tropical rainforest stands at a perilous threshold. Scientists warn that the vast ecosystem, often described as the planet’s green lung, is approaching a “point of no return,” where environmental degradation could become irreversible. The choice of Belém, at the mouth of the Amazon River, as the venue for this year’s COP is both symbolic and urgent, drawing attention to the ecological heart of South America and its critical role in regulating the global climate.
Stretching across nine nations Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana the Amazon covers nearly 6.9 million square kilometers and sustains over 34 million people. It is home to more than 10% of the world’s known species, a vital carbon sink, and a source of countless ecological services. Yet today, the Amazon’s delicate balance faces its greatest test from deforestation, global warming, and industrial exploitation.
Franco-Peruvian climatologist Jhan-Carlo Espinoza of France’s Institute of Research for Development (IRD) and a member of the Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA), warns that portions of the southern Amazon are already exhibiting signs of ecological transformation. “In Bolivia’s Amazon and other southern areas, forests are suffering unprecedented droughts, turning into savanna-like landscapes similar to the Brazilian Cerrado,” Espinoza explains. “Record droughts in 2023 and 2024 revealed how fast the hydrological balance is shifting.”
The Amazon’s hydrological cycle once one of the most stable systems on Earth is now intensifying in unpredictable ways. While the south endures historic droughts, the northern basin faces more frequent and destructive floods. According to Espinoza, these extremes are interconnected, showing that the rainforest’s climate-regulating mechanisms are faltering.
Scientists have long warned that once deforestation exceeds 40%, the Amazon could reach an irreversible tipping point. Currently, between 17 and 20% of the forest has already been cleared an area roughly equivalent to France and Germany combined with another 17% degraded by human activity such as logging, mining, and fires. The past two decades have also been the warmest on record, accelerating the loss of biodiversity and carbon storage.
The consequences are profound. Forest loss not only diminishes the Amazon’s capacity to absorb carbon but also disrupts its vital water cycle. “Half of the rain that falls over the Amazon is recycled by the trees themselves,” Espinoza explains. “When we cut down these trees, we break this loop reducing rainfall, drying out the forest, and jeopardizing agriculture and water supply far beyond the Amazon Basin.” He adds that the effects extend to the Andes mountains, where tropical glaciers depend on Amazonian moisture, and to southern South America, affecting regional food production and weather patterns.
In the lead-up to COP30, researchers and Indigenous leaders are urging governments to take bold, science-backed action. The Science Panel for the Amazon, which unites nearly 300 experts, has called for an ambitious plan to achieve zero deforestation and to restore degraded ecosystems. But Espinoza notes that local policies alone are not enough. “Deforestation in the Amazon is driven by global demand for soy, beef, timber, and gold. Responsibility must be shared internationally.”
Beyond deforestation, scientists are also pressing for a halt to dam construction and large infrastructure projects that fragment river systems and isolate ecosystems. “The Amazon begins in the Andes, at over 5,000 meters above sea level,” Espinoza reminds. “The sediments and nutrients that sustain the rainforest originate there breaking this connection endangers the entire system.”
Equally vital, experts insist, is safeguarding Indigenous territories, where communities act as natural guardians of the forest. Indigenous organizations from across the Amazon Basin have recently renewed their call for direct access to climate financing and greater participation in global decision-making processes. Their message is clear: preserving the Amazon is not only a scientific or environmental necessity it is a moral and human imperative.
As COP30 approaches, the Amazon’s fate stands as a measure of the world’s commitment to combating climate change. The rainforest’s resilience, once thought unshakable, is now under unprecedented strain. Whether global leaders in Belém can rise to meet this moment and act before the tipping point is crossed will determine not only the Amazon’s future, but the future of the planet itself.