Baghdad: Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki is quietly resurfacing as a pivotal figure ahead of Iraq’s parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11, 2025. Despite a tenure marred by sectarian strife, accusations of corruption, and the dramatic rise of the Islamic State (IS) during his leadership, Maliki’s influence on Iraq’s political future remains substantial.
Once considered politically sidelined, Maliki has repositioned himself as a king-maker rather than a direct contender for the premiership. Leading the Shiite State of Law Coalition, he is leveraging his extensive networks to shape bloc formations, potentially determining who will hold Iraq’s highest executive office. Analysts note that his return to influence relies on three primary factors: enduring relationships with the judiciary, security forces, and Shiite militias; strategic coalition-building across sectarian lines; and a personal legacy rooted in decades of political maneuvering within Iraq’s Shiite Islamist movement.
Maliki’s previous terms as prime minister, between 2006 and 2014, left an indelible mark on Iraq’s political landscape. His administration faced heavy criticism for exacerbating sectarian tensions between Shiites and Sunnis, which contributed to IS’s rise. The fall of Mosul in 2014 and the subsequent IS advance culminated in international pressure, particularly from the United States and key regional actors, that forced him to step down. Parliamentary inquiries accused him of mismanagement that led to the collapse of Iraq’s security apparatus. Despite these controversies, his early career marked by exile under Saddam Hussein and leadership in the Shiite Dawa Party continues to command loyalty among segments of the Shiite population.
Rather than aggressively seeking the premiership, Maliki is operating behind the scenes, allowing him to cultivate alliances across Shiite, Sunni, and moderate political actors. This strategic restraint provides him with leverage in forming coalitions, particularly in Iraq’s fragmented political environment. Political observers suggest that his ability to broker deals could significantly shape post-election governance, even if he does not occupy a formal office.
Maliki’s resurgence carries implications for sectarian relations, governance, and reform efforts. His influence may consolidate Shiite power within parliament, but it also risks alienating Sunni and Kurdish leaders wary of his past policies. The informal power he wields through militias and institutional networks complicates the formation of a transparent and inclusive government. Additionally, Iraqis frustrated with unemployment, corruption, and limited public services may view a Maliki-shaped government as a continuation of past failures, potentially affecting voter turnout and post-election stability.
Maliki faces a complex political landscape. Sectarian divisions remain unresolved, and Iraq’s electoral fragmentation makes coalition-building a delicate task. Internationally, his perceived closeness to Iran has drawn attention, while his past confrontations with the United States remain a point of concern for Western observers. Balancing domestic and regional interests will be crucial for any government influenced by Maliki’s coalition.
Maliki’s return underscores the enduring role of established political figures in Iraq, even after periods of public disapproval and institutional failure. His influence highlights the interplay between formal democratic structures and informal power networks, including militias and patronage systems, which continue to shape Iraq’s governance. The election outcome will reveal whether Iraq can move beyond entrenched sectarian politics toward reform and inclusivity, or remain mired in familiar political dynamics that enabled past instability.
Despite a controversial past, Nouri al Maliki remains a decisive force in Iraq’s political arena. By positioning himself as a king-maker, he may determine the trajectory of the next government. How Iraqi voters respond will be critical in shaping the nation’s path toward either renewed reform and stability or continued reliance on entrenched political networks.