Dhaka: Bangladesh is bracing for heightened political turbulence as the landmark verdict in the trial of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is set to be delivered on Monday. With tensions already running high, her son, Sajeeb Wazed, has issued a stark warning that the country could plunge into widespread unrest if the Awami League’s political ban remains in place ahead of the February national elections.
The trial, broadcast live across the nation, examines allegations of crimes against humanity linked to the 2024 crackdown on student-led demonstrations. Hasina, currently living in exile in New Delhi under what her son describes as firm Indian protection, is being tried in absentia. Wazed told Reuters that he expects a conviction possibly even a death sentence though he insists the charges are politically motivated and engineered by the interim government to eliminate the Awami League from the electoral landscape.
Security tensions have escalated sharply in Dhaka as the verdict draws closer. Over the past week, the capital witnessed a surge of small-scale explosions 32 in a single day and several bus arson attacks. These incidents have triggered an aggressive security response, with more than 400 personnel from the Border Guard Bangladesh deployed alongside intensified police checkpoints meant to deter further violence.
The political stakes are high. The Awami League, Bangladesh’s oldest and historically dominant political party, was suspended earlier this year by the caretaker administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. Officials claim the suspension was necessary due to active war-crimes inquiries and persistent concerns over national security. Wazed, however, argues that the decision is an attempt to sideline millions of Awami League supporters and engineer an uncontested election scenario.
Human rights concerns continue to cast a long shadow. According to UN estimates, between July 15 and August 5, 2024, at least 1,400 people were killed and thousands more injured when security forces retaliated against protesters demanding Hasina’s resignation. The protests marked the deadliest period of civil unrest in Bangladesh since the 1971 Liberation War, deepening social fractures and raising urgent questions about state accountability.
International observers including foreign diplomats and human rights monitors have been granted access to the proceedings, with the interim government insisting the tribunal operates with full transparency. Still, the opposition claims the trial is being used as a political weapon, and many analysts fear the verdict could ignite a fresh cycle of demonstrations.
As election season approaches, Bangladesh stands on a precarious edge. A harsh verdict combined with the continued ban on the Awami League could mobilize mass protests, potentially overwhelming security forces and destabilizing the fragile political climate. Alternatively, lifting the ban might ease tensions but would spark fierce debate about judicial independence and the legitimacy of the trial.
For now, citizens, political leaders, and the international community wait anxiously for Monday’s ruling a moment that could redefine Bangladesh’s political future and test the nation’s ability to navigate justice, democracy, and stability simultaneously.