Paris: Global demand for coal has reached an all time high this year but is expected to level off and gradually decline by the end of the decade as renewable energy and cleaner power sources expand worldwide according to the International Energy Agency.
In its latest assessment the International Energy Agency said global coal consumption rose to about 8.85 billion metric tonnes in 2025 the highest level ever recorded. The increase came despite years of international pledges to cut fossil fuel use and curb climate change.
The agency said the rise was driven mainly by strong electricity demand and short term energy security concerns in several countries. Higher natural gas prices and supply uncertainties also pushed some power producers back toward coal especially in advanced economies.
Coal use in the United States increased this year as policy support and market conditions helped keep coal fired power plants running longer than expected. In contrast coal demand in India dipped slightly due to heavy monsoon rains that boosted hydropower generation and reduced the need for coal based electricity during parts of the year.
China the world’s largest coal consumer recorded largely stable coal use in 2025. While growth slowed the country’s overall consumption remained far higher than any other nation making its energy choices critical to global coal trends. The agency said faster growth in electricity demand or delays in renewable energy projects in China could keep global coal demand higher for longer.
Despite the record consumption the agency expects coal demand to peak soon and begin a slow decline by around 2030. This outlook is based on the rapid expansion of renewable energy nuclear power and increased use of natural gas along with efficiency improvements in power systems.
Recent trade data also point to early signs of change. Global thermal coal exports declined this year a rare development driven by lower imports in major Asian markets and growing domestic energy production in some countries. This suggests that while total consumption remains high the structure of the coal market is beginning to shift.
The agency cautioned however that the projected decline is not guaranteed. Rapid growth in electricity demand across developing economies and uneven progress in clean energy deployment could delay the downturn in coal use.
Climate experts warn that the expected gradual decline may still fall short of what is needed to meet global climate targets. They say sharper and faster cuts in coal consumption will be required to limit global warming and reduce air pollution.
For now coal remains deeply embedded in the global energy system but the agency said the coming years will be decisive in determining whether the world can move away from its most carbon intensive fuel.