Havana: Cuba is sinking deeper into economic hardship, marked by worsening power cuts, food shortages and declining living standards, but United States intelligence agencies say the crisis does not necessarily mean the government is about to fall.
According to a recent assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency, Cuba’s economy is in a grim state, particularly in the energy, agriculture and tourism sectors. However, the report offers a more cautious view than some public statements from US officials, concluding that the country’s leadership still retains enough control to remain in power for now.
The CIA analysis comes at a time when daily life in Cuba has become increasingly difficult. Long electricity blackouts have returned across the island, fuel is scarce, and inflation has eroded purchasing power. Many Cubans struggle to find basic goods, while wages fail to keep pace with rising prices.
One of the biggest pressures on the economy is the sharp reduction in oil supplies from Venezuela, Cuba’s main energy partner for years. Recent US actions targeting Venezuelan oil shipments have further reduced fuel flows to Havana, intensifying electricity shortages and disrupting transport, industry and food production.
Despite these conditions, the intelligence assessment suggests that economic suffering alone may not translate into immediate political change. Analysts note that Cuba’s security forces remain loyal and effective, and that large scale protests are harder to sustain as hundreds of thousands of mostly young Cubans have emigrated in recent years.
This mass emigration has eased some internal pressure but has also hollowed out the workforce, leaving fewer skilled workers and deepening long term economic weakness. Families increasingly rely on remittances from relatives abroad to survive.
US officials have recently argued that the collapse of Venezuela’s support could push Cuba toward a breaking point. However, intelligence officials appear less certain, warning against assuming that severe hardship will automatically lead to a change in government.
The Cuban leadership strongly rejects Washington’s claims. President Miguel Diaz Canel has blamed US sanctions and recent military actions in the region for the country’s worsening situation, accusing the United States of deliberately trying to suffocate the Cuban economy. State media continues to frame the crisis as the result of external pressure rather than internal policy failures.
At the same time, signs of public frustration are growing. While open protest remains rare and risky, dissatisfaction is increasingly visible in everyday conversations and on social media. Many Cubans, especially younger generations, openly question whether current economic policies can deliver any improvement.
Tourism, once a key source of foreign currency, has yet to recover fully, while agriculture remains constrained by fuel shortages, lack of inputs and outdated infrastructure. Economists say growth prospects for this year remain weak, with only marginal improvement expected at best.
For now, Cuba appears caught in a prolonged period of hardship rather than on the edge of sudden political change. Intelligence analysts warn that the situation is volatile and could shift if shortages worsen further or if an unexpected shock hits the system. But their current judgment is clear: the economy is failing fast, while the government, though weakened, is not yet falling.
The coming months are likely to test how long Cubans can endure daily shortages and uncertainty, and whether the state can continue to manage a crisis that shows little sign of easing.