Kampala: Uganda’s bid to have former diplomat Olara Otunnu become the next United Nations secretary general is facing a difficult road after the first informal vote by the UN Security Council showed limited support for his candidacy.
Otunnu, a veteran Ugandan diplomat and former United Nations official, was nominated by Uganda in July to compete for the top UN position. His entry has added an African candidate to a race that has so far been strongly shaped by candidates from Latin America and the Caribbean.
The first informal straw poll held by the Security Council, however, showed that Otunnu has significant ground to cover. According to diplomats familiar with the results, Otunnu received two votes encouraging his candidacy, while five members indicated that they would discourage his candidacy. Eight members expressed no opinion.
Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan emerged as the early leader, receiving 10 votes in support. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett followed with nine votes, while Argentina’s Rafael Grossi received seven. Chile’s former president Michelle Bachelet and former Senegalese president Macky Sall each received six votes.
The results do not mean that Otunnu has been eliminated from the race. The straw poll is informal and is designed to show the level of support and opposition among Security Council members before the formal selection process begins.
The next informal vote is expected on August 21. More rounds may follow as countries try to identify a candidate who can secure broad support.
The secretary general is selected through a process that gives the Security Council a central role. A candidate needs at least nine votes from the 15 member council and must avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members, namely the United States, China, Russia, France and Britain.
The final decision is then formally approved by the 193 member UN General Assembly.
Otunnu brings considerable experience to the contest. He served as Uganda’s foreign minister and later became the UN special representative for children and armed conflict. He held that UN position from 1997 to 2005 and spent years working on issues involving children affected by wars and armed conflicts.
He also has a unique connection to the way the secretary general selection process works. During his time as Uganda’s representative to the UN in the 1980s, Otunnu was involved in the development of an informal voting system used to assess candidates. The method later became known as the Otunnu Formula.
Now, decades later, the former diplomat is competing in the same process that he once helped shape.
His supporters are presenting his long experience in international diplomacy as one of his main strengths. They argue that his understanding of the UN system and his experience dealing with international conflicts could make him an effective secretary general at a time when the organisation faces multiple global crises.
However, his campaign faces an important regional challenge. There has traditionally been an expectation that the UN secretary general position should rotate between different regions of the world. With current secretary general António Guterres coming from Europe, many diplomats believe that Latin America and the Caribbean have a strong claim to the next position.
That expectation could make it difficult for an African candidate to gain momentum.
The current field includes several candidates from Latin America and the Caribbean. Grynspan of Costa Rica is currently in the strongest position after the first straw poll, while Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana and Grossi of Argentina have also attracted substantial support.
Grynspan’s campaign has another significant feature. If elected, she would become the first woman to serve as UN secretary general. Gender representation has become an important issue in the race, with many countries calling for a woman to lead the organisation for the first time.
Still, the first poll does not guarantee that Grynspan or any other leading candidate will eventually win. The selection process is often shaped by negotiations between powerful countries, regional groups and individual Security Council members.
A candidate who starts strongly can lose support if a permanent member opposes them. At the same time, a candidate with weaker initial support can gain importance if the leading contenders fail to build a wider agreement.
This is where Otunnu could still have an opportunity.
His current numbers place him at the bottom of the first poll, but the race remains open. If the leading candidates face opposition from powerful countries or fail to secure enough support, Security Council members could eventually look for a compromise candidate with strong international experience.
For Uganda, Otunnu’s campaign is therefore more than a simple contest for the position. It also allows the country to put an experienced African diplomat at the centre of an important international discussion.
The next straw poll on August 21 will be closely watched. A significant improvement in Otunnu’s support could give his campaign fresh momentum. If his numbers remain low, however, his chances of becoming the next UN secretary general will become increasingly difficult.
For now, the race remains wide open, but the first vote shows that Otunnu has a steep challenge ahead if he hopes to turn Uganda’s nomination into a successful bid for the world’s top diplomatic position.