Singapore: The world is heading into a potentially powerful El Niño, but the global food system is entering the event in a much stronger position than it was during previous major climate shocks. Higher farm production, improved technology and large food reserves could help countries manage disruptions, although experts warn that rising prices and regional shortages remain a serious risk.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that begins with unusually warm waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It can change rainfall and temperature patterns across large parts of the world. A strong event can bring drought to some farming regions while causing heavy rain and flooding in others.
The current El Niño is expected to strengthen during the coming months. The World Meteorological Organization said in late July that a strong El Niño was developing and was expected to become stronger between August and October. It also warned that above normal temperatures could affect many parts of the world, while rainfall patterns could shift sharply between regions.
The United States climate authorities have also warned that the event could continue into early 2027. Their July assessment gave a 97 percent chance that El Niño would remain in place through early spring 2027.
Despite these warnings, the global food system has several important advantages compared with previous major El Niño events.
Farmers around the world now have access to better crop varieties, improved irrigation, satellite monitoring and more accurate weather information. Digital farming tools can also help farmers decide when to plant, irrigate or harvest. These improvements mean that farmers in some regions can respond more quickly when weather conditions begin to change.
Global food reserves are another important source of protection. Grain inventories are close to record levels, giving governments and food companies a larger cushion if production falls in some major farming regions. The growth of large agricultural exporters has also made the global food market more diversified.
Brazil has become a major supplier of soybeans, while Russia has expanded its role in wheat exports. India has substantial rice reserves and China holds large wheat stocks. These supplies could help reduce the impact of production losses in other countries.
However, large reserves do not mean consumers are protected from higher prices.
The biggest concern is that El Niño could affect several important agricultural regions at the same time. Rice, wheat, sugar, palm oil, coffee and other crops can be sensitive to changes in rainfall and temperature. If production falls, prices could increase even when the world still has enough food overall.
India is one country that has some protection because of its large grain stocks. But the country could still face pressure if rainfall becomes weaker than expected. Analysts have warned that El Niño could increase food prices in India, although strong grain reserves could provide a cushion against a major supply shock.
The situation is also complicated by rising costs for farmers. Agriculture depends heavily on fuel, fertiliser, transport and international trade. Disruptions to energy and fertiliser supplies can increase production costs even when harvests remain relatively strong.
That means the impact of El Niño may be felt in two different ways. Some countries could face lower agricultural production, while others may still have enough food but pay much more to produce, transport and import it.
The risks are particularly serious for poorer countries where families already spend a large share of their income on food. A rise in international prices can quickly become a major problem for households that have little financial room to absorb higher costs.
Recent food market assessments have also warned that the combination of El Niño, geopolitical tensions and high production costs could create additional pressure on global food prices later this year.
Still, the current situation is different from the food shocks associated with the major El Niño events of 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016. The world now has better farming technology, larger reserves and a more diverse network of food exporters.
The coming months will show whether those improvements are enough to absorb the effects of a very strong El Niño.
For now, the most likely concern is not that the world will suddenly run out of food. The bigger challenge could be keeping food affordable and ensuring that countries and communities with fewer resources are able to cope with higher prices and disrupted harvests.
If the El Niño strengthens as expected and continues into 2027, governments will face growing pressure to protect food supplies, maintain reserves and support vulnerable households. Early preparation could make the difference between a manageable period of food price pressure and a much wider food security crisis.