Ankara - Architects and engineers warn that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's plan to quickly rebuild areas devastated by recent earthquakes could lead to another disaster if building safety and urban planning are not carefully considered.
Following the devastating earthquakes, President Tayyip Erdogan has pledged to quickly rebuild the southern disaster zone within a year, at an estimated cost of $25 billion.
The earthquakes, the worst in modern Turkish history, left over a million people homeless and killed tens of thousands in both Turkey and neighboring Syria. The disaster revealed the fragility of Turkey's infrastructure, as modern and ancient buildings, including hospitals, mosques, churches, and schools, were destroyed.
Many experts now argue that in addition to replacing the demolished buildings, Turkey must re-plan the cities based on scientific data, avoiding building on faultlines, and learning from past mistakes. Esin Koymen, former head of Istanbul Chamber of Architects, says that "the first priority is new planning, not new building."
Urbanization Minister Murat Kurum has said that the government will consider detailed geological surveys in its city reconstruction plans and that tenders would be held. However, many worry that the ambitious timeframe set by Erdogan's government for the rebuilding effort may leave little time to fix past mistakes.
"When they say 'we start the construction in a month, we finish it in a year,' without the city planning work, frankly, this means that the disaster we are experiencing has not been noticed," said Nusret Suna, deputy head of the Chamber of Civil Engineers. "It takes months to make city plans...it is very wrong to ignore those plans."
The bill to rebuild houses, transmission lines, and infrastructure is estimated at around $25 billion, or 2.5% of GDP, according to a report by U.S. bank JPMorgan. Another report by business association Turkonfed estimates damages to housing at $70.8 billion. Analysts say costs could overshoot initial estimates.
Over the past two decades, Erdogan has used major real estate projects to showcase Turkey's rising prosperity. Public and private builds have boosted jobs and new housing stock, and helped his opinion poll ratings. However, critics have accused the government of failing to enforce building regulations and awarding "friendly" companies lucrative construction contracts in return for political and financial support.
Opposition politicians also accuse Erdogan's government of mis-spending special taxes levied after the last major earthquake in 1999 to make buildings more resistant to quakes. The government has vowed to investigate anyone suspected of responsibility for the collapse of buildings and has arrested dozens of people so far.
Although state housing agency TOKI built just 1 million quake-resilient houses over the past two decades, accounting for about 5% of buildings in Turkey, the private sector built slightly more than 2 million sturdy homes during the same period, according to Urbanization Minister Kurum.
The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, which may be delayed due to the earthquake, pose Erdogan's biggest political challenge yet, as a cost-of-living crisis weighed heavily on Turks before the disaster struck. Experts say that rebuilding safely and sustainably while also addressing underlying issues will be key to avoiding future disasters and maintaining public confidence.