ANKARA, Turkey  —Turkey's presidential election likely headed to a runoff as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan falls short of an outright win, leading his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu by 49.3% to 45%, according to results from the state-run Anadolu news agency.

Erdogan, who has been in power for 20 years, has said he could still win and will respect the nation's decision if the race goes to a runoff on May 28. The election is being closely watched to see if Turkey remains under the control of an increasingly authoritarian president or can embark on a more democratic course envisioned by Kilicdaroglu.

In the lead-up to the election, polls showed Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of an opposition alliance, slightly ahead of President Erdogan who has been in power since 2003.

Kilicdaroglu expressed optimism about winning in a second round of voting and bringing about democratic change, citing Erdogan's loss of trust among the population.

The election took place amidst economic turmoil, high living costs, and a devastating earthquake earlier in the year. The outcome is being closely watched by Western nations and foreign investors due to Erdogan's unconventional economic policies and his efforts to position Turkey as a key player in international negotiations.

The Turkish presidential campaign was marked by Erdogan's controversial tactics, as he aimed to extend his rule for another term. Erdogan resorted to divisive rhetoric, accusing his main challenger, Kilicdaroglu, of collaborating with "terrorists" and advocating for LGBTQ rights.

To win over voters struggling with inflation, Erdogan offered financial incentives such as increased wages, pensions, and subsidies for utility bills.

Additionally, he boasted about Turkey's infrastructure projects and homegrown defense industry.

According to the election results, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party was predicted to maintain its parliamentary majority, even though the assembly's legislative power had been reduced after a 2017 referendum that changed the governance system to an executive presidency.

The state-run Anadolu news agency reported that Erdogan's ruling party had garnered around 49.3% of the votes, while Kilicdaroglu's Nation Alliance received approximately 35.2%. The pro-Kurdish party was reported to have more than 10% of the support.

President Erdogan claimed victory in Turkey’s presidential election, despite falling short of the votes needed for an outright win. With votes from Turkish citizens abroad still being counted, Erdogan had 49.3% of the votes, while his main rival, Kilicdaroglu, received 45%.

The election was highly divisive, with Erdogan portraying Kilicdaroglu as colluding with “terrorists” and supporting “deviant” LGBTQ rights, while Kilicdaroglu campaigned on promises to reverse crackdowns on free speech and democratic backsliding and to repair an economy battered by high inflation and currency devaluation.

Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party was set to retain its majority in parliament, although the assembly has lost much of its legislative power after a referendum to change the country’s system of governance to an executive presidency narrowly passed in 2017. Voter turnout was nearly 89%, despite government suppression of freedom of expression and assembly in recent years.

Despite Erdogan’s efforts in mediating deals between Ukraine and Russia, and hosting talks to extend an agreement that allowed Ukrainian grain to reach the world through Black Sea ports, critics argue that his heavy-handed style has led to a painful cost-of-living crisis. Inflation has risen to about 44%, and the opposition used the price of vegetables, including an onion, as a symbol during the campaign.

Erdogan's economic policies go against mainstream economic thinking, as he contends that high interest rates fuel inflation and pressures the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to lower its main rate.

The president has also faced criticism for his government’s response to the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that hit southern provinces, which was allegedly delayed and stunted and caused casualties and misery due to lax implementation of building codes.