NEW YORK  —New York City faces an additional risk to its already concerning challenges, such as rising oceans. The city is experiencing a gradual sinking of its landmass due to the weight of its skyscrapers, homes, asphalt, and the sheer presence of its bustling population. Recent research indicates that the city's land is subsiding at an average rate of 1 to 2 millimeters per year.

While ground compression is a natural process observed worldwide, this study, published in Earth's Future journal, aimed to assess how the immense mass of the city itself contributes to this phenomenon. With over 1 million buildings spread across the five boroughs, the research team estimates a collective weight of approximately 1.7 trillion tons (1.5 trillion metric tons) of concrete, metal, and glass. This immense burden, comparable to the mass of 4,700 Empire State buildings, exerts pressure on the Earth, further accelerating the sinking process.

The study revealed that the rate of compression varies across different areas of the city. Midtown Manhattan, where skyscrapers are predominantly constructed on solid rock, experiences minimal compression. However, certain regions of Brooklyn, Queens, and downtown Manhattan, situated on looser soil, are sinking at a faster pace.

Although the process is gradual, Tom Parsons, lead researcher at the U.S. Geological Survey, predicts that certain parts of New York City will eventually be submerged. He explains that as the ground sinks and sea levels rise, there will come a point where the two levels meet. However, Parsons assures that there is no immediate need to panic or invest in life preservers.

The study acknowledges that buildings in the city are contributing to the shifting landscape, albeit at a slow pace. Parsons and his team reached their conclusions by analyzing satellite imagery, utilizing data modeling, and making mathematical assumptions. It remains uncertain when exactly this transformation into an American version of Venice, sinking into the Adriatic Sea, might occur, as it is a process that will take hundreds of years.

Certain areas of New York City are at greater risk due to their location and the weight they bear, according to Tom Parsons. Specifically, he highlights Manhattan, where the average elevation in the southern part of the island is only 1 or 2 meters (3.2 or 6.5 feet) above sea level. This proximity to the waterline raises significant concerns. As the ocean levels rise in conjunction with the sinking of the land, the changing climate could hasten the process of submergence for these vulnerable parts of the city.

Parsons emphasizes that the sinking of the land and the risks associated with it should not deter construction or solely be attributed to buildings themselves. Multiple factors contribute to this phenomenon. The intention of the study was to raise awareness of the issue in advance, aiming to address it before it becomes a more significant problem.

In addition to the threat of rising sea levels, New York City faces the risk of flooding caused by powerful storms that can push the ocean inland or bring heavy rainfall. This type of flooding has already proven to be destructive and deadly, as seen in events like Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Ida. The recent study on the sinking landmass of the city is considered significant by experts like Andrew Kruczkiewicz from Columbia University, as it can help inform policymakers in their ongoing efforts to address the rising tides and mitigate the risks. Taking anticipatory action and preparedness measures becomes crucial, rather than waiting for a critical threshold of sea level rise to be reached.

While some New Yorkers may initially be skeptical, the visual evidence of sailboats floating near downtown Manhattan makes them reconsider. The city's excessive number of skyscrapers, apartment buildings, offices, and retail spaces contribute to the weight exerted on the land. New York City is not the only location experiencing sinking land; San Francisco also puts pressure on the ground due to its numerous structures and proximity to active earthquake faults. Similarly, the Indonesian government is making preparations for a potential retreat from Jakarta, which is sinking into the Java Sea, by constructing a new capital on higher ground on a different island.