New Delhi - There is a prevailing sentiment that the news coming from Maldives isn't particularly positive. Is this sentiment accurate? India's ties with Maldives are deeply rooted, both historically and in contemporary relations. While changes might occur to some extent due to the recent change in leadership in Maldives, it is unlikely to significantly alter the core aspects of our relationship. From Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's era to the present day, our relations, despite occasional challenges, have remained close and friendly. It's important not to rush to judgments about the current situation.

Maldives covers an area of 90,000 square kilometers, with over 1,200 islands distributed across it. Experts predict that 80 percent of the Maldives may disappear by 2050 due to the effects of climate change. India, situated just 70 nautical miles away, is the closest neighbor and is best positioned to offer assistance in times of need. As Ibn Khaldun, a Tunisian philosopher, famously stated, geography plays a crucial role in determining destiny, and this holds true for our two nations. Our countries are intertwined not only through geography but also through history.

Maldives, with a remarkably high literacy rate of 98 percent, presents a paradoxical situation, posing challenges to democratic governance. These challenges include a constitution that restricts non-Sunni individuals from becoming Maldivian citizens, a developing civil society, a tradition of patronage, a growing problem of drug abuse, a distorted labor market, increasing inequality, and an economy heavily reliant on external factors. Another concerning trend is the rise of religious extremism.

India has consistently been a significant factor in Maldives, acting as a constant presence. In earlier times, Buddhism was the dominant religion in Maldives, but it was replaced by Islam in the 12th century. Even during the years of British protectorate (1887-1965), Maldives relied on India for essential resources and communication with the outside world. The State Bank of India played a pivotal role in financing the development of the country's tourism industry. Even today, it remains the largest bank in the Maldives. India has provided assistance in times of crisis, such as the attempted coup in 1988, without interfering in internal matters. This dependence on India, along with its unwavering support, has contributed to the Maldives' high per capita income in South Asia.

The cooperation between Maldives and India spans various areas, including defense, joint exercises, capacity building, security assistance, education, health, trade, tourism, and infrastructure development. India remains a crucial partner in all of these domains. India also supplies essential items like rice, wheat flour, sugar, potatoes, onions, eggs, vegetables, and even construction materials in bulk.

For India, Maldives serves as a front line of defense against terrorism, piracy on the high seas, drug trafficking, narcotics, and other maritime crimes. In contrast, China's involvement in the region is primarily motivated by its self-interest. China's debt financing has led to debt traps and increased influence in Maldives. Its interference in the country's internal politics and support for conservative elements may hinder the development of a vibrant democracy in Maldives. It appears that elements aligning with China are continuing the controlled regime legacy of the Gayoom years, which may not be in the nation's long-term interest.

India remains steadfast in its commitment to Maldives and has consistently worked to build strong relations. Hasty decisions to undermine this comprehensive partnership could harm Maldives more than India. An example of this is the 2012 "GMR out" campaign, which cost Maldives $270 million in payouts to GMR. The Yameen years saw a pro-China policy that led Maldives into a debt crisis.

Looking ahead, President-designate Mohamed Muizzu, a Western-educated engineer with experience as a minister and mayor of the capital Male, is expected to take a pragmatic approach that preserves relations with India. While elections are often driven by emotions and promises, the realities of governance may lead him to appreciate the potential consequences of undermining the relationship with India. Taking India for granted could also come at a cost, as the saying goes, "those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it."