Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party made historic gains in the first round of France's parliamentary election on Sunday, according to exit polls. However, the final outcome will depend on negotiations in the days leading up to next week's run-off.

Exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay, and Elabe indicated that the RN secured approximately 34% of the vote. This marks a significant setback for President Emmanuel Macron, who had called for the snap election after his party was defeated by the RN in the European Parliament elections earlier this month. Macron's Together alliance was projected to win between 20.5% and 23%, while the New Popular Front (NFP), a newly formed left-wing coalition, was seen winning around 29%.

Although the exit polls were consistent with pre-election surveys and brought jubilation to Le Pen's supporters, they did not clarify whether the RN, known for its anti-immigrant and eurosceptic stance, could form a government to coexist with the pro-EU Macron after the run-off. The RN, traditionally viewed with disdain due to its associations with racism and antisemitism, is now closer to power than ever. Le Pen's efforts to reshape the party's image have paid off amid public discontent with Macron, rising living costs, and immigration concerns.

In Le Pen's constituency of Henin-Beaumont in northern France, supporters celebrated with French flags and the Marseillaise. Le Pen declared that the French were ready to move on from what she described as a contemptuous and corrosive power.

The RN's success in gaining power next week will hinge on political negotiations with its rivals. Historically, centre-right and centre-left parties have united to prevent the RN from ascending to power, a strategy known as the "republican front." However, this approach is now less predictable.

In the event no candidate achieves 50% in the first round, the top two contenders, along with any candidates who receive at least 12.5% of registered voters, advance to the second round. The candidate with the most votes in the run-off wins the constituency. High voter turnout suggests France may see a record number of three-way run-offs, which generally favor the RN more than two-way contests.

Negotiations began almost immediately on Sunday night. Macron urged voters to support candidates who are "clearly republican and democratic," implicitly excluding those from the RN and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. Political leaders from both the centre-left and far-left called on their third-placed candidates to withdraw.