In the days leading up to a potential shift in U.S. leadership, both the Biden administration and Russia have taken significant steps to influence the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These actions, occurring two months before Donald Trump’s expected return to the White House, underscore mounting tensions and strategic recalibrations on both sides.
President Joe Biden’s decision to authorize Kyiv's use of long-range ATACMS missiles against targets deep within Russian territory marks a turning point in U.S. support for Ukraine. The latest $300 million military aid package also includes ammunition, drones, and anti-personnel landmines. Analysts believe this shift was triggered by reports of thousands of North Korean troops bolstering Russian forces, an escalation Washington views as a direct challenge.
Mykhaylo Samus, head of the New Geopolitics Research Network, suggests the missile strikes are a preemptive move to counteract Moscow’s bolstered offensive capacity. “Everything is about preparing for a strong position for talks with Trump,” he said, noting that Ukraine’s use of ATACMS sends a psychological message to Russia.
Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has further loosened conditions for deploying nuclear weapons, stating they could be used against non-nuclear countries backed by nuclear powers or in response to massive air attacks. Russian analysts see this as a strategic message to the West, emphasizing the risks of continued support for Ukraine.
Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center interprets this move as an attempt to intimidate Western elites. “He believes he must scare them to show they are playing with fire,” she remarked.
Moscow has intensified its aerial attacks, with this week seeing the most significant strikes on Ukraine in months. These operations are perceived as Russia’s effort to maximize gains before Trump assumes office. Kremlin insiders hint at minimal concessions in any negotiations, with Putin unlikely to relinquish substantial territorial claims.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made clear that military aid is crucial for Ukraine’s survival. In a recent U.S. interview, he warned that any reduction in support could jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian advances. However, Zelensky remains steadfast in refusing to cede territory, including Crimea, viewing such concessions as potential triggers for internal conflict.
On the battlefield, Kyiv continues to prioritize containing Russian offensives in the east, leveraging new U.S.-supplied weaponry. “For us, it’s necessary to localize Russian advances,” said Mykola Bielieskov of Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies.
With Trump’s promise to end the war within 24 hours, speculation abounds about his approach to the conflict. While his camp has criticized Biden’s recent moves, analysts like Jade McGlynn from King’s College London remain skeptical of Trump’s ability to broker lasting peace. “Any settlement that weakens Ukraine significantly could lead to political chaos,” she cautioned.
As Ukraine marks 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion, its leadership remains resolute. Zelensky’s recent 10-point resilience plan underscores the nation’s determination to reclaim occupied territories. For many Ukrainians, victory may hinge on outlasting Putin, with hopes that Russia’s internal dynamics could eventually shift the tide.
The coming months, particularly with the anticipated changes in U.S. leadership, will be pivotal in shaping the trajectory of this prolonged and brutal conflict.