Hong Kong: Just over a year ago, China extended a warm reception to Bashar al-Assad and his wife during their six-day visit, offering the embattled Syrian leader a rare break from years of international isolation since Syria's civil war began in 2011. During their stay, Assad and his wife were shown great hospitality, with President Xi Jinping reaffirming China’s support for Syria in resisting external interference and aiding in its reconstruction. Meanwhile, Asma al-Assad was celebrated by the Chinese media.

However, the abrupt collapse of Assad's regime, with rebels taking control of Damascus in a swift offensive that ended his family's 50-year rule, has dealt a significant blow to China’s diplomatic ambitions in the Middle East. Analysts believe this turn of events exposes the limitations of China's regional strategy.

Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, suggested that there had been an inflated perception of China’s ability to shape political outcomes in the region. The downfall of Assad, while weakening the influence of his main backers—Iran and Russia—has also undermined China's global aspirations. China’s international strategies have heavily relied on support from countries like Russia and Iran, and their inability to stabilize Assad’s regime casts doubt on China’s effectiveness beyond the region.

After China brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, there was significant praise for China’s growing influence in a region traditionally dominated by the U.S. China also facilitated a ceasefire between Palestinian factions earlier this year and has advocated for a ceasefire in Gaza. Despite these efforts, though, the Palestinian factions have not united, and the conflict in Gaza continues.

Fan Hongda, a Middle East expert at Shanghai International Studies University, noted that China prefers a more stable and independent Middle East, one that is neither chaotic nor aligned with the U.S., as such an orientation conflicts with China’s interests.

The Chinese foreign ministry’s response to Assad’s downfall has been understated, focusing on ensuring the safety of Chinese nationals and calling for a political solution to restore stability in Syria. Chinese officials have suggested that Beijing will wait before recognizing any new government in Syria and may offer support for reconstruction, though their commitments are likely to be cautious given China’s focus on minimizing overseas financial risks.

Syria joined China's Belt and Road Initiative in 2022, but there have been few significant investments due to sanctions. According to Bill Figueroa, an expert on China-Middle East relations, China is not positioned to replace the West in the region as an economic, diplomatic, or military power. China’s economic situation is also less robust than it was in 2013-2014 when the Belt and Road Initiative was launched, leading to a more cautious approach toward overseas investments.