Four years after overthrowing the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a February 2021 coup, Myanmar’s military junta is intensifying efforts to legitimize its rule by planning a nationwide election in 2025. However, the move is widely criticized as a sham, with the country embroiled in a brutal civil war and large swathes of territory under the control of armed opposition groups.

In recent months, the junta has outlined its election roadmap to neighboring countries, released census data to prepare voter lists, and emphasized its commitment to ensuring "stability" for the polls. Yet, these efforts come as the military continues to lose ground to a coalition of ethnic armed groups and resistance forces that have emerged since the coup.

According to analysts, rebel leaders, and diplomatic sources, the junta’s push for elections is likely to exacerbate tensions and trigger more violence. The military currently controls only about half of Myanmar’s 330 townships, with plans to hold elections in just 160-170 of them. Critics argue that the exclusion of opposition groups and the restriction of voting to pro-military parties render the process illegitimate.

The National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow administration formed by remnants of Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy and other anti-junta groups, has unveiled a 12-point plan to thwart the junta’s election efforts. The strategy includes blocking election commissions, mobilizing local communities, and strengthening alliances with armed resistance groups.

NUG spokesman Kyaw Zaw confirmed that military operations against the junta would continue but emphasized that civilians would not be targeted. Meanwhile, ethnic armed groups like the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) have vowed to oppose the elections and escalate their campaigns against the military.

“The election is one of the factors that will push us to act much faster,” a Karenni commander told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Analysts warn that the junta’s election plans could plunge Myanmar into further chaos. “There is a very real danger these elections could turn into a bloodbath if revolutionary forces decide to attack polling stations, election officials, and party candidates,” said David Mathieson, an independent analyst specializing in Myanmar.

The country is already under a state of emergency set to expire at the end of January, raising speculation about whether the junta will extend it or announce an election date ahead of the coup anniversary.

The political turmoil has devastated Myanmar’s economy and left millions facing severe food insecurity. By mid-2024, an estimated 15 million people could experience acute hunger, according to a December Reuters report. The crisis has been largely overlooked by the international community, even as regional bloc ASEAN has urged the junta to prioritize dialogue and end hostilities over holding elections.

At a recent meeting, ASEAN members reiterated that elections should not be the junta’s immediate focus, calling instead for an immediate cessation of violence and meaningful political engagement.

As Myanmar teeters on the brink of further conflict, the junta’s election plans appear to be a desperate bid for legitimacy that risks deepening the country’s humanitarian and political crises. With opposition forces determined to disrupt the polls and millions of lives hanging in the balance, the path to stability remains fraught with peril.