Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party clung to power in Monday’s Canadian election, falling short of the majority mandate he sought to strengthen his hand in trade negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre acknowledged defeat, vowing his party would act as a strong opposition to Carney's minority government.
Early results showed the Liberals winning or leading in 164 parliamentary ridings, ahead of the Conservatives' 147, with ballots still being tallied. A majority requires 172 seats in the 338-member House of Commons — a threshold the Liberals narrowly missed.
Polling expert Shachi Kurl, head of the Angus Reid Institute, pointed to three key reasons behind the Liberal victory: "an ‘anyone-but-Conservative’ sentiment, backlash against Trump's tariff threats, and the departure of the unpopular former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which helped rally center-left voters back to the party."
Carney, campaigning on a promise to take a tougher line with Washington and reduce Canada’s economic dependence on its southern neighbor, faced stronger-than-expected resistance from a rejuvenated Conservative Party, eager for change after nearly a decade of Liberal rule.
Canadian minority governments often last no more than two-and-a-half years, setting the stage for potential political instability.
The Liberals' return to government marks a dramatic comeback, given that the party was trailing by 20 points in public opinion polls just months ago, before Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s aggressive new trade threats shifted the political landscape.
Reflecting on the turnaround, Liberal Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland told CTV: “Back in December, people were wondering if we’d even survive as a recognized party. Tonight’s result is nothing short of remarkable."
Trump loomed large in the final days of the campaign, warning of a possible 25% tariff on Canadian-made cars and even suggesting he might push for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state. On social media, Trump reiterated the idea, promising massive economic benefits if Canada joined the United States.
Tensions with Washington led some voters from smaller parties — notably the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Quebecois — to shift their support to the Liberals. In a further blow to the left, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost his own seat and announced plans to step down.
Meanwhile, Conservative hopes of securing a breakthrough in the vital Toronto metropolitan area materialized to some extent, helping to deny the Liberals a full majority. However, Poilievre himself was locked in a tight race in his Ottawa district, with final results pending.
If history holds, Carney’s Liberals have achieved a rare feat: they are poised to become the first party since 2004 to win four straight federal elections.
Throughout the campaign, Poilievre emphasized economic hardships, rising crime, and Canada’s housing woes, accusing the Liberals of “breaking the country.” But ultimately, the electorate chose to give Carney another term — albeit a more precarious one.