Congo: Global mining giant Glencore has issued a stark warning that a significant share of its cobalt output could remain unsold by the end of 2025 due to ongoing export restrictions enforced by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The statement comes amid rising concerns over the tightening grip of Congo’s government on one of the world’s most critical mineral markets.
The DRC, which supplies nearly three-quarters of the world’s cobalt a metal vital for electric vehicle batteries and renewable technologies introduced a four-month export ban earlier this year. That ban was later extended to September, leaving major producers like Glencore in a state of logistical paralysis. As the situation evolves, the government is reportedly evaluating a quota-based export mechanism, but no final decision has been made.
In its half-year financial update, Glencore disclosed that its cobalt production in the DRC rose 19% year-on-year, reaching 18,900 metric tons in the first half of 2025. The full-year output is projected between 42,000 and 45,000 tons, up from 38,200 tons in 2024. However, with the ban in place, a large portion of this volume risks piling up in storage, potentially going unsold for the rest of the year.
Earlier, Glencore had to declare force majeure on some delivery contracts due to the export ban, signaling that it couldn’t fulfill obligations for reasons beyond its control. Despite this, the company said deliveries to customers are still being maintained through stock held outside the DRC.
The market reaction to the supply crunch has been swift. Cobalt prices, which had previously plunged to nine-year lows, have rebounded sharply, climbing about 35% in recent months. While this may ease financial pressure on miners, it has also intensified the spotlight on Congo’s dominant role in regulating the flow of critical minerals.
Chinese mining companies, particularly CMOC Group another major cobalt producer have been pressuring the Congolese government to lift the ban, citing urgent demand from China’s electric vehicle manufacturers. Glencore, on the other hand, has cautiously backed a regulated quota system, viewing it as a necessary step to stabilize an oversupplied market.
The coming weeks are crucial, as Congo must decide whether to extend the current ban or transition to a more flexible quota framework. For Glencore, the risk of holding unsold cobalt in warehouses raises concerns about inventory costs and supply chain strain. Yet the company appears prepared to weather the storm, having excluded the stranded cobalt from its 2025 earnings forecast.
This development underscores the broader volatility in the global battery metals market. With the DRC asserting itself as a gatekeeper of cobalt exports, the ripple effects are being felt far beyond Africa impacting prices, production timelines, and the strategic calculations of manufacturers and governments worldwide.