Washington: Global investors are turning their attention to private-sector employment figures this week as the ongoing US government shutdown halts the release of official labour data, including the key non-farm payrolls report. The unusual data blackout has forced markets to rely on private surveys and corporate updates to gauge the strength of the American job market a crucial indicator for future interest rate decisions.
The private employment report, typically overshadowed by official statistics, is now gaining rare prominence. Analysts say the figures will serve as a key guide for traders and policymakers trying to understand whether the US economy is cooling or holding firm after months of policy tightening.
Market watchers note that the lack of official data could increase volatility in the short term. Investors are expected to scrutinize hiring trends in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and services, where job growth has been most resilient. Economists warn that any signs of weakness in private hiring could heighten fears of a slowdown, while strong numbers may revive concerns about inflationary pressure.
The situation comes as the Federal Reserve signals a cautious stance following its latest rate cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted that no further cuts are expected this year unless clear signs of economic strain emerge. This has reinforced investor focus on employment trends as a barometer for future monetary policy moves.
Despite the uncertainty, global markets remain steady. European and Asian stocks opened higher on Monday, with investors showing resilience after last week’s turbulence. In Asia, manufacturing data from China and South Korea indicated slower momentum, but optimism persisted as traders looked ahead to more economic clues from the United States.
Energy prices also steadied, supported by OPEC+’s decision not to increase oil production in early 2026. The move helped balance supply concerns and added some stability to commodity markets.
Analysts believe the coming days will be crucial in shaping sentiment. Without official labour data, the private jobs report will carry significant weight influencing expectations on inflation, spending, and interest rates.
As one economist put it, “When the official numbers go dark, the private data becomes the market’s compass.”
For now, investors appear cautious but composed, waiting to see whether America’s private-sector jobs can keep the world’s largest economy on course amid growing uncertainty.