Tokyo: Oil markets retreated on Monday after loadings resumed at Russia’s key Black Sea export port of Novorossiysk, reversing gains from last week that had been fueled by a temporary suspension.
In early Asian trading, Brent crude futures fell by 58 cents, or 0.9%, to $63.81 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 59 cents, or 1.0%, to $59.50 per barrel. Both benchmarks had climbed more than 2% on Friday following the two-day suspension at Novorossiysk and the nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, which together accounted for roughly 2% of global oil supply.
According to industry sources, Novorossiysk port restarted oil loadings on Sunday, supported by data from LSEG. However, analysts remain cautious as Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Kyiv reported strikes on the Ryazan refinery and, later, on the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Samara region, highlighting the potential for further disruptions.
“Investors are trying to gauge how Ukraine’s attacks will affect Russia’s crude exports in the long term, while also locking in profits after last Friday’s rally,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. Despite recent volatility, he noted that perceptions of oversupply from OPEC+ production increases continue to cap prices, with WTI expected to hover near $60 per barrel, fluctuating within a $5 range.
Meanwhile, attention is turning to Western sanctions. The United States plans to ban transactions with Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21, aiming to pressure Moscow toward peace talks. U.S. political developments could further tighten global oil trade, with potential legislation targeting any country conducting business with Russia and possibly Iran, according to former President Donald Trump.
On the production front, OPEC+ confirmed a modest December output increase of 137,000 barrels per day, consistent with previous months, while agreeing to pause further increases in early 2026. In the United States, the number of active oil rigs rose by three to 417 in the week ending November 14, signaling steady domestic drilling activity.
In summary, while the resumption of shipments at Novorossiysk eased immediate supply concerns, geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and production policy continue to cast uncertainty over global oil markets, keeping investors on alert for further volatility.