New Delhi: India is expected to receive below average rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, raising concerns for agriculture, food production and rural livelihoods across the country. The latest forecast from the India Meteorological Department suggests that rainfall during the crucial June to September period is likely to remain below normal, marking a significant shift after years of relatively favourable monsoon conditions.
The southwest monsoon is the lifeline of India's agricultural economy. It provides nearly 70 percent of the country's annual rainfall and supports millions of farmers who depend on seasonal rains for cultivating crops such as rice, soybean, cotton, pulses and sugarcane. A weak monsoon can affect crop yields, increase irrigation demand and contribute to rising food prices.
According to the weather department, rainfall during the season is expected to be around 90 percent of the long period average. June rainfall, which is particularly important for sowing operations, is likely to be weaker than normal. Meteorologists have linked the forecast to changing weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean, where conditions are becoming increasingly favourable for the development of El Niño.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that warms surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It often disrupts weather patterns around the world and has historically been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India. Scientists monitoring global climate conditions have reported growing indications that El Niño could develop during the coming months, increasing the risk of rainfall deficits across parts of the country.
The weather office noted that current weak La Niña conditions are gradually fading. As a result, climate models are showing a higher probability of El Niño emerging during the monsoon season. If the phenomenon strengthens, it could lead to prolonged dry spells during July and August, which are normally the wettest months of the season.
Regional forecasts suggest that rainfall may not be evenly distributed. Some parts of northeast India are expected to receive near normal rainfall, while several regions in central, northwestern and peninsular India could experience below normal precipitation. Such uneven rainfall patterns may create additional challenges for farmers and local administrations.
The forecast has prompted authorities to begin preparing for possible impacts on agriculture. The government has indicated that contingency plans are being put in place to help farmers manage any adverse effects on crops. Agricultural experts are also encouraging farmers to make use of weather advisories and adopt water conservation measures where possible.
Economists are closely watching the monsoon outlook because rainfall has a direct influence on India's rural economy and food inflation. Lower crop production can reduce supplies of essential food items and contribute to higher prices in markets. This could have broader economic implications, especially at a time when policymakers are working to keep inflation under control.
Meteorologists are also monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate factor that can influence rainfall across the region. Some climate models suggest that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may develop later in the year. Such a development could partly offset the negative effects of El Niño, although experts caution that it may not completely eliminate the risk of below average rainfall.
While the latest forecast does not indicate a severe drought, it signals a challenging monsoon season that could affect agriculture, food security and rural incomes. The progress of El Niño and the actual distribution of rainfall during the coming months will be closely watched as India enters one of the most important periods of its agricultural calendar.