NEW DELHI  —The earlier than usual El Nino, exacerbated by climate change, is expected to bring warmer and drier weather, impacting rice production in Asia. With 90% of the world's rice grown and consumed in Asia, the reduced rainfall caused by a strong El Nino poses a significant challenge for rice farmers in the region.

This situation adds to global food security concerns, already strained by the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a one in four chance of this El Nino intensifying to larger proportions, further exacerbating the impact on rice production.

Historically, El Nino events have resulted in extreme weather conditions, ranging from droughts to floods. Currently, there are concerns about the impact of the ongoing El Nino on rice production and global food prices.

Rising rice prices have already been observed due to production shortfalls, with Thailand's average price of 5% broken white rice in June being 16% higher than last year. Global rice stocks have been depleted since the previous year, partly due to severe floods in Pakistan, a major rice exporter. The current El Nino may further exacerbate challenges for rice-producing countries, including reduced fertilizer availability and export restrictions on rice.

Particularly vulnerable countries such as Myanmar, Cambodia, and Nepal are expected to face additional difficulties, as highlighted in a report by research firm BMI.

There is a sense of uncertainty regarding the future impact of the current El Nino event.

Recent observations indicate that global temperatures have reached record highs, and the monsoon rains in India have been below average by the end of June. As a result, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has urged his ministers to prepare for an extended dry season, and authorities in the Philippines are taking precautions to safeguard vulnerable areas by managing water resources.

Some countries are already anticipating food shortages, with Indonesia being significantly affected by India's decision to restrict rice exports last year due to lower rainfall and a severe heatwave that affected wheat production. The concern is that these factors could lead to increased domestic food prices.

India has taken steps to address food security concerns by pledging to provide over 1 million metric tons of rice to Indonesia, Senegal, and Gambia.

However, the availability of fertilizer is posing a challenge to crop production. China's restrictions on fertilizer exports last year, along with disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, have affected the supply of key chemical fertilizers.

This has led to countries like Bangladesh seeking alternative suppliers to meet their fertilizer needs. The combination of potential rice shortages and limited fertilizer availability adds to the uncertainty surrounding global food security.

Farmers in South and Southeast Asia, such as Abu Bakar Siddique in Bangladesh, are facing challenges due to reduced rainfall caused by El Nino.

Abu Bakar had to rely more on electric pumps for irrigation, increasing his costs. These challenges are further compounded by power shortages resulting from war-related fuel shortages. Historical patterns indicate that the region will experience decreased rainfall, leading to negative consequences for agriculture in the future.

Beau Damen, a natural resources officer, warns that some countries, particularly Indonesia, may be particularly vulnerable to the early stages of the El Nino phenomenon.